{
  "asOf": "2026-10-19",
  "status": "Uncalibrated analyst judgments; exact supplied model definitions and probabilities. Display percentages rounded to whole numbers.",
  "horizons": [
    "2027-01-19",
    "2027-04-19",
    "2027-07-19",
    "2027-10-19",
    "2028-10-19",
    "2029-10-19"
  ],
  "source": "/investors/data-room?document=world-forecast",
  "limitations": "No demonstrated historical calibration or out-of-sample advantage. Overlapping questions and repeated horizons are dependent. Adjudication and source-vintage rules are included per question.",
  "questions": [
    {
      "id": "F001",
      "mode": "E",
      "q": "US unemployment reaches 5.0%",
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      "resolver": "https://www.bls.gov/news.release/empsit.nr0.htm",
      "domain": "Macro & finance",
      "page": 17,
      "resolutionRule": "At least one BLS monthly U-3 seasonally adjusted unemployment release for a reference month after 2026-10-19 and by each horizon reports >=5.0%; use first release, no revisions.",
      "adjudication": "Observe qualifying post-cutoff event by deadline for event questions; latest eligible reference period at deadline for states. Allow 90 days for scheduled statistical release, record period and vintage. No qualifying new release -> unavailable, not NO. Resolve events already confirmed YES without waiting. Two independent primary records for contested geopolitical claims; otherwise disputed/unresolved.",
      "rationale": "Payroll momentum is weak, yet September unemployment was 4.2%.",
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        "S0133"
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    {
      "id": "F002",
      "mode": "E",
      "q": "US headline inflation reaches 5.0%",
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      "resolver": "https://www.bls.gov/news.release/cpi.nr0.htm",
      "domain": "Macro & finance",
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      "resolutionRule": "At least one BLS monthly all-items CPI-U year-on-year rate, not seasonally adjusted, for a post-as-of reference month reaches >=5.0%; first release.",
      "adjudication": "Observe qualifying post-cutoff event by deadline for event questions; latest eligible reference period at deadline for states. Allow 90 days for scheduled statistical release, record period and vintage. No qualifying new release -> unavailable, not NO. Resolve events already confirmed YES without waiting. Two independent primary records for contested geopolitical claims; otherwise disputed/unresolved.",
      "rationale": "Energy inflation is elevated; headline September inflation was 3.7%.",
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    {
      "id": "F003",
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      "q": "US core inflation reaches 3.5%",
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      "domain": "Macro & finance",
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      "resolutionRule": "At least one BLS monthly CPI-U excluding food and energy twelve-month rate reaches >=3.5% for a post-as-of reference month; first release.",
      "adjudication": "Observe qualifying post-cutoff event by deadline for event questions; latest eligible reference period at deadline for states. Allow 90 days for scheduled statistical release, record period and vintage. No qualifying new release -> unavailable, not NO. Resolve events already confirmed YES without waiting. Two independent primary records for contested geopolitical claims; otherwise disputed/unresolved.",
      "rationale": "Core September CPI was 2.6%; second-round price transmission is uncertain.",
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        "S0123"
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        "G00256",
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    },
    {
      "id": "F004",
      "mode": "E",
      "q": "Fed upper policy bound reaches 4.75%",
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      "resolver": "https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm",
      "domain": "Macro & finance",
      "page": 17,
      "resolutionRule": "An effective FOMC target federal-funds upper bound >=4.75% is announced after the as-of date and implemented by the horizon.",
      "adjudication": "Observe qualifying post-cutoff event by deadline for event questions; latest eligible reference period at deadline for states. Allow 90 days for scheduled statistical release, record period and vintage. No qualifying new release -> unavailable, not NO. Resolve events already confirmed YES without waiting. Two independent primary records for contested geopolitical claims; otherwise disputed/unresolved.",
      "rationale": "The current range is 3.75\u20134.00%; persistent inflation could require more tightening.",
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        "S0124"
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    },
    {
      "id": "F005",
      "mode": "E",
      "q": "Fed upper policy bound falls to 3.0%",
      "public": [
        6,
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        21,
        37,
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      ],
      "agi": [
        6,
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      "resolver": "https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm",
      "domain": "Macro & finance",
      "page": 17,
      "resolutionRule": "An effective FOMC target upper bound <=3.00% is announced after the as-of date and implemented by the horizon.",
      "adjudication": "Observe qualifying post-cutoff event by deadline for event questions; latest eligible reference period at deadline for states. Allow 90 days for scheduled statistical release, record period and vintage. No qualifying new release -> unavailable, not NO. Resolve events already confirmed YES without waiting. Two independent primary records for contested geopolitical claims; otherwise disputed/unresolved.",
      "rationale": "A pronounced demand or financial shock could overwhelm inflation concerns.",
      "contextSourceIds": [
        "S0124"
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    },
    {
      "id": "F006",
      "mode": "E",
      "q": "US 10-year yield reaches 6%",
      "public": [
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      "resolver": "https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/DGS10",
      "domain": "Macro & finance",
      "page": 17,
      "resolutionRule": "FRED DGS10 closes at >=6.00% on five consecutive published business days after the as-of date.",
      "adjudication": "Observe qualifying post-cutoff event by deadline for event questions; latest eligible reference period at deadline for states. Allow 90 days for scheduled statistical release, record period and vintage. No qualifying new release -> unavailable, not NO. Resolve events already confirmed YES without waiting. Two independent primary records for contested geopolitical claims; otherwise disputed/unresolved.",
      "rationale": "High term premia and fiscal supply create upside yield risk.",
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    },
    {
      "id": "F007",
      "mode": "E",
      "q": "US 10-year yield falls below 4%",
      "public": [
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        26,
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      "agi": [
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      "resolver": "https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/DGS10",
      "domain": "Macro & finance",
      "page": 17,
      "resolutionRule": "FRED DGS10 closes at <=4.00% on five consecutive published business days after the as-of date.",
      "adjudication": "Observe qualifying post-cutoff event by deadline for event questions; latest eligible reference period at deadline for states. Allow 90 days for scheduled statistical release, record period and vintage. No qualifying new release -> unavailable, not NO. Resolve events already confirmed YES without waiting. Two independent primary records for contested geopolitical claims; otherwise disputed/unresolved.",
      "rationale": "Growth deterioration can reduce yields even during continuing supply stress.",
      "contextSourceIds": [
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    {
      "id": "F008",
      "mode": "E",
      "q": "US yield curve deeply reinverts",
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      "agi": [
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      "resolver": "https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/T10Y2Y",
      "domain": "Macro & finance",
      "page": 18,
      "resolutionRule": "DGS10 minus DGS2 is <=-0.50 percentage points on twenty consecutive matched published business days after the as-of date.",
      "adjudication": "Observe qualifying post-cutoff event by deadline for event questions; latest eligible reference period at deadline for states. Allow 90 days for scheduled statistical release, record period and vintage. No qualifying new release -> unavailable, not NO. Resolve events already confirmed YES without waiting. Two independent primary records for contested geopolitical claims; otherwise disputed/unresolved.",
      "rationale": "Further short-rate tightening combined with weaker expected growth could invert the curve.",
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    {
      "id": "F009",
      "mode": "E",
      "q": "US high-yield spreads exceed 600 basis points",
      "public": [
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      "resolver": "https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/BAMLH0A0HYM2",
      "domain": "Macro & finance",
      "page": 18,
      "resolutionRule": "ICE BofA US High Yield option-adjusted spread BAMLH0A0HYM2 is >=6.00 percentage points on five consecutive published business days.",
      "adjudication": "Observe qualifying post-cutoff event by deadline for event questions; latest eligible reference period at deadline for states. Allow 90 days for scheduled statistical release, record period and vintage. No qualifying new release -> unavailable, not NO. Resolve events already confirmed YES without waiting. Two independent primary records for contested geopolitical claims; otherwise disputed/unresolved.",
      "rationale": "Compressed credit spreads can reprice rapidly if AI funding or macro demand weakens.",
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    {
      "id": "F010",
      "mode": "E",
      "q": "VIX remains above 40 for a week",
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      "resolver": "https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/VIXCLS",
      "domain": "Macro & finance",
      "page": 18,
      "resolutionRule": "CBOE VIXCLS daily close is >=40 on five consecutive published trading days after the as-of date.",
      "adjudication": "Observe qualifying post-cutoff event by deadline for event questions; latest eligible reference period at deadline for states. Allow 90 days for scheduled statistical release, record period and vintage. No qualifying new release -> unavailable, not NO. Resolve events already confirmed YES without waiting. Two independent primary records for contested geopolitical claims; otherwise disputed/unresolved.",
      "rationale": "Conflict and leverage can create correlated volatility episodes.",
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    {
      "id": "F011",
      "mode": "E",
      "q": "Brent averages at least USD140 in a month",
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      "resolver": "https://www.eia.gov/dnav/pet/hist/RBRTEM.htm",
      "domain": "Macro & finance",
      "page": 18,
      "resolutionRule": "At least one full calendar month beginning after 2026-10-19 has EIA Europe Brent spot-price monthly average >=USD140/bbl; first published monthly observation.",
      "adjudication": "Observe qualifying post-cutoff event by deadline for event questions; latest eligible reference period at deadline for states. Allow 90 days for scheduled statistical release, record period and vintage. No qualifying new release -> unavailable, not NO. Resolve events already confirmed YES without waiting. Two independent primary records for contested geopolitical claims; otherwise disputed/unresolved.",
      "rationale": "Repeated maritime disruption could reduce delivered crude and increase scarcity premia.",
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    {
      "id": "F012",
      "mode": "E",
      "q": "Brent averages below USD70 in a month",
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        5,
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      "agi": [
        5,
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      "resolver": "https://www.eia.gov/dnav/pet/hist/RBRTEM.htm",
      "domain": "Macro & finance",
      "page": 18,
      "resolutionRule": "At least one full calendar month beginning after the as-of date has EIA Europe Brent spot monthly average <=USD70/bbl.",
      "adjudication": "Observe qualifying post-cutoff event by deadline for event questions; latest eligible reference period at deadline for states. Allow 90 days for scheduled statistical release, record period and vintage. No qualifying new release -> unavailable, not NO. Resolve events already confirmed YES without waiting. Two independent primary records for contested geopolitical claims; otherwise disputed/unresolved.",
      "rationale": "A major demand contraction or sustained supply normalization could reverse the war premium.",
      "contextSourceIds": [
        "S0382"
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        "G00843",
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    {
      "id": "F013",
      "mode": "E",
      "q": "IMF cuts next-year global growth below 2%",
      "public": [
        5,
        9,
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        5,
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      "resolver": "https://www.imf.org/en/Publications/WEO",
      "domain": "Macro & finance",
      "page": 18,
      "resolutionRule": "Any official WEO or WEO Update published after the as-of date and by the horizon projects calendar2027 world real GDP growth below2.0%; this resolves a forecast-revision event, not realized growth. Only forecast publications issued by 31 Dec 2027 qualify; later 2027 outcome estimates do not. Probabilities plateau after that opportunity window.",
      "adjudication": "Observe qualifying post-cutoff event by deadline for event questions; latest eligible reference period at deadline for states. Allow 90 days for scheduled statistical release, record period and vintage. No qualifying new release -> unavailable, not NO. Resolve events already confirmed YES without waiting. Two independent primary records for contested geopolitical claims; otherwise disputed/unresolved.",
      "rationale": "This requires a substantial deterioration from the October3.4%2027 forecast.",
      "contextSourceIds": [
        "S0122"
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      "contextSignalIds": [
        "G00251",
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      "id": "F014",
      "mode": "E",
      "q": "WTO cuts 2027 goods-trade growth to 1% or less",
      "public": [
        6,
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        6,
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      "resolver": "https://www.wto.org/english/res_e/publications_e/global-trade-outlook-and-statistics_e.htm",
      "domain": "Macro & finance",
      "page": 18,
      "resolutionRule": "Any official WTO forecast published after the as-of date and by the horizon projects2027 world merchandise trade-volume growth <=1.0%; use publication-time estimate. Only forecast publications issued by 31 Dec 2027 qualify; later 2027 outcome estimates do not. Probabilities plateau after that opportunity window.",
      "adjudication": "Observe qualifying post-cutoff event by deadline for event questions; latest eligible reference period at deadline for states. Allow 90 days for scheduled statistical release, record period and vintage. No qualifying new release -> unavailable, not NO. Resolve events already confirmed YES without waiting. Two independent primary records for contested geopolitical claims; otherwise disputed/unresolved.",
      "rationale": "Trade remains exposed to geopolitical corridors and AI-capex reversal.",
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        "S0151",
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        "G00353",
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      "id": "F015",
      "mode": "E",
      "q": "Euro-area inflation reaches 5%",
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      "resolver": "https://ec.europa.eu/eurostat/web/hicp",
      "domain": "Macro & finance",
      "page": 19,
      "resolutionRule": "Any Eurostat first full monthly HICP release for a post-as-of reference month reports euro-area all-items annual inflation >=5.0%; use final monthly rather than flash estimate.",
      "adjudication": "Observe qualifying post-cutoff event by deadline for event questions; latest eligible reference period at deadline for states. Allow 90 days for scheduled statistical release, record period and vintage. No qualifying new release -> unavailable, not NO. Resolve events already confirmed YES without waiting. Two independent primary records for contested geopolitical claims; otherwise disputed/unresolved.",
      "rationale": "September flash inflation was3.8%; energy pass-through remains material.",
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        "G01115",
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      "id": "F016",
      "mode": "E",
      "q": "ECB deposit rate reaches 3.5%",
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      "resolver": "https://www.ecb.europa.eu/stats/policy_and_exchange_rates/key_ecb_interest_rates/html/index.en.html",
      "domain": "Macro & finance",
      "page": 19,
      "resolutionRule": "An ECB deposit-facility rate >=3.50% becomes effective after the as-of date and by the horizon.",
      "adjudication": "Observe qualifying post-cutoff event by deadline for event questions; latest eligible reference period at deadline for states. Allow 90 days for scheduled statistical release, record period and vintage. No qualifying new release -> unavailable, not NO. Resolve events already confirmed YES without waiting. Two independent primary records for contested geopolitical claims; otherwise disputed/unresolved.",
      "rationale": "The current2.50%rate and projected broadening price pressure permit further tightening.",
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    {
      "id": "F017",
      "mode": "E",
      "q": "BOJ policy rate reaches 2%",
      "public": [
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      "agi": [
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      "resolver": "https://www.boj.or.jp/en/mopo/mpmdeci/index.htm",
      "domain": "Macro & finance",
      "page": 19,
      "resolutionRule": "The BOJ announces and implements an uncollateralized overnight call-rate target >=2.00% after the as-of date and by the horizon.",
      "adjudication": "Observe qualifying post-cutoff event by deadline for event questions; latest eligible reference period at deadline for states. Allow 90 days for scheduled statistical release, record period and vintage. No qualifying new release -> unavailable, not NO. Resolve events already confirmed YES without waiting. Two independent primary records for contested geopolitical claims; otherwise disputed/unresolved.",
      "rationale": "The1.25%baseline and continued normalization point to further hikes, with uncertain pace.",
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      "publicExact": [
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    {
      "id": "F018",
      "mode": "E",
      "q": "Yen appreciates at least 15% against USD",
      "public": [
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        29,
        37,
        58,
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      "agi": [
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      "resolver": "https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/DEXJPUS",
      "domain": "Macro & finance",
      "page": 19,
      "resolutionRule": "FRED DEXJPUS daily rate is <=0.85 times its latest observation dated on or before2026-10-19 on five consecutive published days; fewer yen per dollar means yen appreciation.",
      "adjudication": "Observe qualifying post-cutoff event by deadline for event questions; latest eligible reference period at deadline for states. Allow 90 days for scheduled statistical release, record period and vintage. No qualifying new release -> unavailable, not NO. Resolve events already confirmed YES without waiting. Two independent primary records for contested geopolitical claims; otherwise disputed/unresolved.",
      "rationale": "BOJ tightening, intervention and deleveraging can unwind yen-funded positions.",
      "contextSourceIds": [
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      "publicExact": [
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    {
      "id": "F019",
      "mode": "E",
      "q": "French\u2013German long-yield spread exceeds 200bp",
      "public": [
        10,
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        54,
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      "agi": [
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      "resolver": "https://data.ecb.europa.eu/data/datasets/IRS",
      "domain": "Macro & finance",
      "page": 19,
      "resolutionRule": "ECB monthly harmonized long-term government-bond yield for France minus Germany reaches >=2.00percentagepoints in at least one month beginning after the as-of date; use comparable ten-year convergence series.",
      "adjudication": "Observe qualifying post-cutoff event by deadline for event questions; latest eligible reference period at deadline for states. Allow 90 days for scheduled statistical release, record period and vintage. No qualifying new release -> unavailable, not NO. Resolve events already confirmed YES without waiting. Two independent primary records for contested geopolitical claims; otherwise disputed/unresolved.",
      "rationale": "October19 market spread near146bp shows significant but sub-threshold fiscal stress.",
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      "publicExact": [
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    {
      "id": "F020",
      "mode": "E",
      "q": "India policy repo rate reaches 6.5%",
      "public": [
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        24,
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      "agi": [
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      "resolver": "https://www.rbi.org.in/Scripts/BS_PressReleaseDisplay.aspx",
      "domain": "Macro & finance",
      "page": 19,
      "resolutionRule": "RBI announces and implements a policy repo rate >=6.50% after the as-of date and by the horizon.",
      "adjudication": "Observe qualifying post-cutoff event by deadline for event questions; latest eligible reference period at deadline for states. Allow 90 days for scheduled statistical release, record period and vintage. No qualifying new release -> unavailable, not NO. Resolve events already confirmed YES without waiting. Two independent primary records for contested geopolitical claims; otherwise disputed/unresolved.",
      "rationale": "Inflation and FX pressure have resumed tightening, but excessive tightening would damage growth.",
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      "publicExact": [
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    {
      "id": "F021",
      "mode": "E",
      "q": "China quarterly GDP growth falls below 3%",
      "public": [
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        16,
        20,
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      "agi": [
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      "resolver": "https://www.stats.gov.cn/english/PressRelease/",
      "domain": "Macro & finance",
      "page": 19,
      "resolutionRule": "China NBS first estimate for any quarter starting after the as-of date reports real GDP growth below3.0% year-on-year; use headline constant-price comparable-period measure.",
      "adjudication": "Observe qualifying post-cutoff event by deadline for event questions; latest eligible reference period at deadline for states. Allow 90 days for scheduled statistical release, record period and vintage. No qualifying new release -> unavailable, not NO. Resolve events already confirmed YES without waiting. Two independent primary records for contested geopolitical claims; otherwise disputed/unresolved.",
      "rationale": "Exports and AI support current growth; weak domestic demand and trade friction are downside channels.",
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      "publicExact": [
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    },
    {
      "id": "F022",
      "mode": "E",
      "q": "ADB cuts 2027 developing-Asia growth below 4.5%",
      "public": [
        8,
        15,
        22,
        28,
        32,
        32
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      "agi": [
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      "resolver": "https://www.adb.org/publications/series/asian-development-outlook",
      "domain": "Macro & finance",
      "page": 20,
      "resolutionRule": "An ADB Asian Development Outlook release published after the as-of date and by horizon projects2027 developing-Asia-and-Pacific GDP growth below4.5%, keeping the September2026 country grouping. Only forecast publications issued by 31 Dec 2027 qualify; later 2027 outcome estimates do not. Probabilities plateau after that opportunity window.",
      "adjudication": "Observe qualifying post-cutoff event by deadline for event questions; latest eligible reference period at deadline for states. Allow 90 days for scheduled statistical release, record period and vintage. No qualifying new release -> unavailable, not NO. Resolve events already confirmed YES without waiting. Two independent primary records for contested geopolitical claims; otherwise disputed/unresolved.",
      "rationale": "The5.1%baseline faces energy, ElNino and credit risks.",
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      "contextSignalIds": [
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      "publicExact": [
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      "sensitivity": {
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    {
      "id": "F023",
      "mode": "E",
      "q": "IMF cuts 2027 SSA growth below 3.5%",
      "public": [
        8,
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      "agi": [
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      "resolver": "https://www.imf.org/en/Publications/REO/SSA",
      "domain": "Macro & finance",
      "page": 20,
      "resolutionRule": "Any official IMF WEO or SSA Regional Economic Outlook issued after the as-of date and by horizon projects2027 SSA GDP growth below3.5%; growth weighting must match the IMF headline aggregate. Only forecast publications issued by 31 Dec 2027 qualify; later 2027 outcome estimates do not. Probabilities plateau after that opportunity window.",
      "adjudication": "Observe qualifying post-cutoff event by deadline for event questions; latest eligible reference period at deadline for states. Allow 90 days for scheduled statistical release, record period and vintage. No qualifying new release -> unavailable, not NO. Resolve events already confirmed YES without waiting. Two independent primary records for contested geopolitical claims; otherwise disputed/unresolved.",
      "rationale": "The primary October baseline is4.5%; aid, imports and interest burdens create fragility.",
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        "S0248"
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        "G00563",
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      "publicExact": [
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    {
      "id": "F024",
      "mode": "E",
      "q": "US twelve-month deficit exceeds USD2.5trn",
      "public": [
        10,
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      "agi": [
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      "resolver": "https://fiscaldata.treasury.gov/datasets/monthly-treasury-statement/",
      "domain": "Macro & finance",
      "page": 20,
      "resolutionRule": "For at least one Monthly Treasury Statement month after the as-of date, sum reported monthly federal deficits over the latest twelve months exceeds USD2.5trn; use cash budget balance, not debt increase.",
      "adjudication": "Observe qualifying post-cutoff event by deadline for event questions; latest eligible reference period at deadline for states. Allow 90 days for scheduled statistical release, record period and vintage. No qualifying new release -> unavailable, not NO. Resolve events already confirmed YES without waiting. Two independent primary records for contested geopolitical claims; otherwise disputed/unresolved.",
      "rationale": "The FY2026 deficit is already nearUSD2trn and interest burdens are rising.",
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        "S0220",
        "S0173"
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      "contextSignalIds": [
        "G00504",
        "G00505",
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      "publicExact": [
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    {
      "id": "F025",
      "mode": "E",
      "q": "Dollar credit to offshore nonbanks contracts for two quarters",
      "public": [
        6,
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      "agi": [
        7,
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      "resolver": "https://data.bis.org/topics/GLI",
      "domain": "Macro & finance",
      "page": 20,
      "resolutionRule": "BIS global-liquidity USD-denominated credit to nonbanks outside theUS records strictly negative year-on-year growth in two consecutive reference quarters starting after the as-of date, using first reported constant-exchange-rate growth.",
      "adjudication": "Observe qualifying post-cutoff event by deadline for event questions; latest eligible reference period at deadline for states. Allow 90 days for scheduled statistical release, record period and vintage. No qualifying new release -> unavailable, not NO. Resolve events already confirmed YES without waiting. Two independent primary records for contested geopolitical claims; otherwise disputed/unresolved.",
      "rationale": "A dollar funding squeeze can transmit to emerging-economy borrowers.",
      "contextSourceIds": [
        "S0171"
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      "contextSignalIds": [
        "G00406",
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      "publicExact": [
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    },
    {
      "id": "F026",
      "mode": "E",
      "q": "Taiwan experiences a sustained coercive commercial-port blockade",
      "public": [
        4,
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        11,
        14,
        25,
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      "agi": [
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      "resolver": "https://www.twport.com.tw/en/",
      "domain": "Geopolitics",
      "page": 21,
      "resolutionRule": "After2026-10-19, PRC enforcement causes closure to normal international merchant traffic of at least one of Taiwan's three largest container ports for seven consecutive calendar days; require Taiwan port authority or government documentation plus independent Reuters/AP confirmation. Exercises without actual port closure do not qualify.",
      "adjudication": "Observe qualifying post-cutoff event by deadline for event questions; latest eligible reference period at deadline for states. Allow 90 days for scheduled statistical release, record period and vintage. No qualifying new release -> unavailable, not NO. Resolve events already confirmed YES without waiting. Two independent primary records for contested geopolitical claims; otherwise disputed/unresolved.",
      "rationale": "Conflict capability dates are not invasion deadlines; quarantine or blockade is a distinct operational risk.",
      "contextSourceIds": [
        "S0258",
        "S0590"
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        "G00583",
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      "publicExact": [
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    {
      "id": "F027",
      "mode": "E",
      "q": "Russia and a NATO member fight directly in a lethal military engagement",
      "public": [
        2,
        5,
        7,
        9,
        18,
        25
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      "agi": [
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      "resolver": "https://www.nato.int/cps/en/natohq/news.htm",
      "domain": "Geopolitics",
      "page": 21,
      "resolutionRule": "After the as-of date, regular Russian and regular NATO-member armed forces directly exchange kinetic fire in an episode causing at least ten confirmed military deaths within seven days. Require acknowledgment by at least one involved government and independent Reuters/AP corroboration; proxy fighting or unclaimed sabotage excluded.",
      "adjudication": "Observe qualifying post-cutoff event by deadline for event questions; latest eligible reference period at deadline for states. Allow 90 days for scheduled statistical release, record period and vintage. No qualifying new release -> unavailable, not NO. Resolve events already confirmed YES without waiting. Two independent primary records for contested geopolitical claims; otherwise disputed/unresolved.",
      "rationale": "Escalation has severe consequences but intentional direct combat remains costly for all parties.",
      "contextSourceIds": [
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        "S0273"
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      "publicExact": [
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    {
      "id": "F028",
      "mode": "E",
      "q": "Ethiopia\u2013Eritrea fighting escalates to a newly severe interstate battle",
      "public": [
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      "agi": [
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      "resolver": "https://acleddata.com/region/conflict-horn-africa",
      "domain": "Geopolitics",
      "page": 21,
      "resolutionRule": "Within any thirty consecutive days after2026-10-19, ACLED records at least100reported fatalities in events involving regular Ethiopian and Eritrean armed forces directly fighting one another; exclude deaths solely from battles against TPLF/Fano/other rebels, even if a state provides support.",
      "adjudication": "Observe qualifying post-cutoff event by deadline for event questions; latest eligible reference period at deadline for states. Allow 90 days for scheduled statistical release, record period and vintage. No qualifying new release -> unavailable, not NO. Resolve events already confirmed YES without waiting. Two independent primary records for contested geopolitical claims; otherwise disputed/unresolved.",
      "rationale": "Cross-border presence is already reported; the event tests additional direct state-to-state escalation.",
      "contextSourceIds": [
        "S0203",
        "S0212"
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      "contextSignalIds": [
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        "G00471",
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      "publicExact": [
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    {
      "id": "F029",
      "mode": "E",
      "q": "Hormuz merchant traffic sustains a material reopening",
      "public": [
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      "agi": [
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      "resolver": "https://www.ukmto.org/",
      "domain": "Geopolitics",
      "page": 21,
      "resolutionRule": "UKMTO publishes four consecutive weekly maritime summaries each reporting at least700total merchant-vessel transits of the Strait of Hormuz, with all four weeks beginning after2026-10-19. Use same transit definition throughout; an announced reopening alone does not qualify.",
      "adjudication": "Observe qualifying post-cutoff event by deadline for event questions; latest eligible reference period at deadline for states. Allow 90 days for scheduled statistical release, record period and vintage. No qualifying new release -> unavailable, not NO. Resolve events already confirmed YES without waiting. Two independent primary records for contested geopolitical claims; otherwise disputed/unresolved.",
      "rationale": "Diplomatic offers coexist with attacks and depressed traffic; physical normalization requires actual transits.",
      "contextSourceIds": [
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      "contextSignalIds": [
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      "publicExact": [
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    },
    {
      "id": "F030",
      "mode": "E",
      "q": "Hormuz attacks produce another confirmed large tanker loss",
      "public": [
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      "agi": [
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      "resolver": "https://www.ukmto.org/recent-incidents",
      "domain": "Geopolitics",
      "page": 21,
      "resolutionRule": "After2026-10-19, a crude tanker with deadweight>=200000tonnes sinks or is declared a constructive total loss following a hostile incident in or within100nauticalmiles of Hormuz. Require UKMTO/IMO incident attribution and shipowner or flag-state confirmation of loss; fire or temporary damage alone excluded.",
      "adjudication": "Observe qualifying post-cutoff event by deadline for event questions; latest eligible reference period at deadline for states. Allow 90 days for scheduled statistical release, record period and vintage. No qualifying new release -> unavailable, not NO. Resolve events already confirmed YES without waiting. Two independent primary records for contested geopolitical claims; otherwise disputed/unresolved.",
      "rationale": "Repeated mine and missile incidents create a distinct severe delivered-energy hazard.",
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      "contextSignalIds": [
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      "publicExact": [
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    },
    {
      "id": "F031",
      "mode": "E",
      "q": "Sudan's principal belligerents enter a new nationwide ceasefire",
      "public": [
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      "agi": [
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      "resolver": "https://sudan.un.org/en",
      "domain": "Geopolitics",
      "page": 21,
      "resolutionRule": "After2026-10-19, SAF and RSF publicly sign a joint nationwide ceasefire for at least30days and the UN Secretary-General or OCHA confirms it has entered force. Signing, not durable compliance, is the registered event; local agreements excluded.",
      "adjudication": "Observe qualifying post-cutoff event by deadline for event questions; latest eligible reference period at deadline for states. Allow 90 days for scheduled statistical release, record period and vintage. No qualifying new release -> unavailable, not NO. Resolve events already confirmed YES without waiting. Two independent primary records for contested geopolitical claims; otherwise disputed/unresolved.",
      "rationale": "Displacement and aid shortfalls support negotiation incentives without guaranteeing compliance.",
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      "publicExact": [
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    },
    {
      "id": "F032",
      "mode": "E",
      "q": "Sudan displacement burden worsens by a million people",
      "public": [
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      "agi": [
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      "resolver": "https://data.unhcr.org/en/situations/sudansituation",
      "domain": "Geopolitics",
      "page": 21,
      "resolutionRule": "A UNHCR or IOM post-as-of release reports conflict-induced combined internal and cross-border displaced population at least1.0million above the latest comparable combined figure dated on or before2026-10-19; denominator must exclude double-counted returnees and maintain comparable coverage.",
      "adjudication": "Observe qualifying post-cutoff event by deadline for event questions; latest eligible reference period at deadline for states. Allow 90 days for scheduled statistical release, record period and vintage. No qualifying new release -> unavailable, not NO. Resolve events already confirmed YES without waiting. Two independent primary records for contested geopolitical claims; otherwise disputed/unresolved.",
      "rationale": "The conflict remains active and funding shortfalls constrain protection and return.",
      "contextSourceIds": [
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      "contextSignalIds": [
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      "publicExact": [
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    },
    {
      "id": "F033",
      "mode": "E",
      "q": "DRC government and M23 begin a nationally recognized ceasefire",
      "public": [
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        39,
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      "agi": [
        14,
        25,
        35,
        44,
        67,
        80
      ],
      "resolver": "https://monusco.unmissions.org/en",
      "domain": "Geopolitics",
      "page": 22,
      "resolutionRule": "After2026-10-19, DRC government and M23/AFC representatives jointly sign a ceasefire with explicit effective date and the UN confirms implementation has begun. The event does not require a full peace settlement; agreements involving only Rwanda and DRC without M23 accession excluded.",
      "adjudication": "Observe qualifying post-cutoff event by deadline for event questions; latest eligible reference period at deadline for states. Allow 90 days for scheduled statistical release, record period and vintage. No qualifying new release -> unavailable, not NO. Resolve events already confirmed YES without waiting. Two independent primary records for contested geopolitical claims; otherwise disputed/unresolved.",
      "rationale": "Negotiation incentives coexist with fragmented armed control; distinguish state accords from armed-group commitment.",
      "contextSourceIds": [
        "S0209",
        "S0337"
      ],
      "contextSignalIds": [
        "G00482",
        "G00483",
        "G00744",
        "G00745"
      ],
      "publicExact": [
        0.11798716728469044,
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        0.3091236970392889,
        0.386586419686688,
        0.6114902309106293,
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      "agiExact": [
        0.1381981532125461,
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        0.3536982954937185,
        0.4376590397327636,
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      "sensitivity": {
        "low": [
          0.0611239981937528,
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          0.17092532741357352,
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          0.386586419686688,
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        "high": [
          0.17092532741357358,
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          0.8621051128673485
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      }
    },
    {
      "id": "F034",
      "mode": "E",
      "q": "Pakistan\u2013Afghanistan border fighting closes a major trade route for a month",
      "public": [
        15,
        27,
        37,
        45,
        68,
        81
      ],
      "agi": [
        15,
        27,
        37,
        45,
        68,
        81
      ],
      "resolver": "https://unama.unmissions.org/en",
      "domain": "Geopolitics",
      "page": 22,
      "resolutionRule": "After the as-of date, Torkham or Chaman international crossing is officially closed to normal commercial freight for thirty consecutive calendar days because of armed interstate hostilities; require both government closure notice and independent Reuters/AP confirmation.",
      "adjudication": "Observe qualifying post-cutoff event by deadline for event questions; latest eligible reference period at deadline for states. Allow 90 days for scheduled statistical release, record period and vintage. No qualifying new release -> unavailable, not NO. Resolve events already confirmed YES without waiting. Two independent primary records for contested geopolitical claims; otherwise disputed/unresolved.",
      "rationale": "Renewed cross-border operations threaten trade even without a formal declaration of war.",
      "contextSourceIds": [
        "S0259",
        "S0260"
      ],
      "contextSignalIds": [
        "G00585",
        "G00586",
        "G00587",
        "G00588"
      ],
      "publicExact": [
        0.1460941718761919,
        0.2671368035484627,
        0.36820403946531294,
        0.45317762118308635,
        0.6833352699068356,
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        0.14618268195074316,
        0.2674172306488204,
        0.36870132444209525,
        0.45387026426262966,
        0.6842891854808498,
        0.8102479498123449
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      "sensitivity": {
        "low": [
          0.0765535623086634,
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          0.20939719288700573,
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        "high": [
          0.20939719288700573,
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          0.8097217129391832,
          0.9072978210846806
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      }
    },
    {
      "id": "F035",
      "mode": "E",
      "q": "France's sovereign spread remains above two percentage points",
      "public": [
        6,
        12,
        18,
        23,
        39,
        52
      ],
      "agi": [
        6,
        12,
        18,
        23,
        39,
        52
      ],
      "resolver": "https://data.ecb.europa.eu/data/datasets/IRS",
      "domain": "Geopolitics",
      "page": 22,
      "resolutionRule": "The ECB monthly French-minus-German comparable ten-year government yield spread is>=2.00percentagepoints for three consecutive reference months after2026-10-19; single-day spikes and noncomparable bonds excluded.",
      "adjudication": "Observe qualifying post-cutoff event by deadline for event questions; latest eligible reference period at deadline for states. Allow 90 days for scheduled statistical release, record period and vintage. No qualifying new release -> unavailable, not NO. Resolve events already confirmed YES without waiting. Two independent primary records for contested geopolitical claims; otherwise disputed/unresolved.",
      "rationale": "Fiscal unrest matters economically when financing stress becomes persistent rather than intraday noise.",
      "contextSourceIds": [
        "S0132",
        "S0150"
      ],
      "contextSignalIds": [
        "G00289",
        "G00290",
        "G00341",
        "G00342"
      ],
      "publicExact": [
        0.06326275342860205,
        0.12171826460408225,
        0.1758092099434784,
        0.22593000394310528,
        0.3932238232669142,
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      "agiExact": [
        0.0632797627340057,
        0.12178020202942241,
        0.17593598785069936,
        0.22613488888317518,
        0.39377878339438854,
        0.5202772354073784
      ],
      "sensitivity": {
        "low": [
          0.032262016596845175,
          0.06326275342860205,
          0.09306253975901463,
          0.12171826460408225,
          0.22593000394310528,
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        "high": [
          0.09306253975901463,
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          0.31563254270588237,
          0.5194458234530301,
          0.65602456029158
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      }
    },
    {
      "id": "F036",
      "mode": "D",
      "q": "Control of the US House changes after the 2026 midterm election",
      "public": [
        58,
        58,
        58,
        58,
        58,
        58
      ],
      "agi": [
        58,
        58,
        58,
        58,
        58,
        58
      ],
      "resolver": "https://clerk.house.gov/",
      "domain": "Geopolitics",
      "page": 22,
      "resolutionRule": "For the119th-to120thCongress transition on2027-01-03, the party that did not hold the House majority on2026-10-19 wins enough certified2026general-election seats to organize the120thHouse; use Clerk official membership and elected Speaker's party. Resolve once at organization; later special elections excluded.",
      "adjudication": "Observe qualifying post-cutoff event by deadline for event questions; latest eligible reference period at deadline for states. Allow 90 days for scheduled statistical release, record period and vintage. No qualifying new release -> unavailable, not NO. Resolve events already confirmed YES without waiting. Two independent primary records for contested geopolitical claims; otherwise disputed/unresolved.",
      "rationale": "An election is a scheduled discrete event; political uncertainty matters for tariffs, aid and appropriations. Probability is judgment, not polling aggregation.",
      "contextSourceIds": [
        "S0244",
        "S0541"
      ],
      "contextSignalIds": [
        "G00555",
        "G00556",
        "G01229",
        "G01230"
      ],
      "publicExact": [
        0.5799999999999998,
        0.5799999999999998,
        0.5799999999999998,
        0.5799999999999998,
        0.58,
        0.58
      ],
      "agiExact": [
        0.58,
        0.58,
        0.58,
        0.58,
        0.58,
        0.58
      ],
      "sensitivity": {
        "low": [
          0.5799999999999998,
          0.5799999999999998,
          0.5799999999999998,
          0.5799999999999998,
          0.58,
          0.58
        ],
        "high": [
          0.5799999999999998,
          0.5799999999999998,
          0.5799999999999998,
          0.5799999999999998,
          0.58,
          0.58
        ]
      }
    },
    {
      "id": "F037",
      "mode": "E",
      "q": "A nationally broad new US import surtax materially raises trade barriers",
      "public": [
        8,
        15,
        21,
        27,
        46,
        59
      ],
      "agi": [
        8,
        15,
        21,
        27,
        46,
        59
      ],
      "resolver": "https://www.federalregister.gov/",
      "domain": "Geopolitics",
      "page": 22,
      "resolutionRule": "A US law or executive action adopted after2026-10-19 imposes an additional ad-valorem general import surcharge>=10percentagepoints on goods from at least10trading partners, effective for at least30consecutive days. Existing sector-only duties, announced proposals and a replacement that leaves effective rates unchanged excluded.",
      "adjudication": "Observe qualifying post-cutoff event by deadline for event questions; latest eligible reference period at deadline for states. Allow 90 days for scheduled statistical release, record period and vintage. No qualifying new release -> unavailable, not NO. Resolve events already confirmed YES without waiting. Two independent primary records for contested geopolitical claims; otherwise disputed/unresolved.",
      "rationale": "Trade policy can propagate inflation and supply-chain adaptation independently of armed conflict.",
      "contextSourceIds": [
        "S0413",
        "S0141"
      ],
      "contextSignalIds": [
        "G00938",
        "G00939",
        "G00323",
        "G00324"
      ],
      "publicExact": [
        0.07710834668367349,
        0.14710283825290157,
        0.21077543619071987,
        0.2688140482730441,
        0.455546218760698,
        0.588772758849115
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      "agiExact": [
        0.07713352641673286,
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        0.21095500798001293,
        0.2690977420049825,
        0.45624416807874585,
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      "sensitivity": {
        "low": [
          0.03949745128140744,
          0.07710834668367349,
          0.1129426868833819,
          0.14710283825290157,
          0.2688140482730441,
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        "high": [
          0.11294268688338191,
          0.2107754361907199,
          0.295910998752593,
          0.37031120744989354,
          0.588772758849115,
          0.7244529146329891
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      }
    },
    {
      "id": "F038",
      "mode": "E",
      "q": "Will the monthly Europe Brent spot price average exceed US$130 per barrel in any month after the cutoff and by the horizon?",
      "public": [
        12,
        22,
        31,
        38,
        60,
        73
      ],
      "agi": [
        11,
        21,
        30,
        38,
        60,
        73
      ],
      "resolver": "https://www.eia.gov/dnav/pet/hist/LeafHandler.ashx?n=PET&s=RBRTE&f=M",
      "domain": "Energy, climate & food",
      "page": 23,
      "resolutionRule": "YES if EIA Europe Brent Spot Price FOB monthly series has at least one post-2026-10-19 calendar-month average >130; allow first revision and retain version.",
      "adjudication": "Observe qualifying post-cutoff event by deadline for event questions; latest eligible reference period at deadline for states. Allow 90 days for scheduled statistical release, record period and vintage. No qualifying new release -> unavailable, not NO. Resolve events already confirmed YES without waiting. Two independent primary records for contested geopolitical claims; otherwise disputed/unresolved.",
      "rationale": "IEA Oct 14 physical shortage and inventory draws raise tail risk; EIA Oct 6 base projects easing. This is cumulative monthly price breach, not horizon-end spot.",
      "contextSourceIds": [
        "S0382"
      ],
      "contextSignalIds": [
        "G00843",
        "G00844"
      ],
      "publicExact": [
        0.11944112329376622,
        0.22137174505181859,
        0.30889727473742595,
        0.3844936304601631,
        0.6019857074761551,
        0.7344616457468673
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      "agiExact": [
        0.1147703562436326,
        0.21396667820585413,
        0.30015541312810484,
        0.3754016091481882,
        0.5962042104431863,
        0.7333733148961357
      ],
      "sensitivity": {
        "low": [
          0.06213264294712638,
          0.11944112329376622,
          0.17238452529980086,
          0.22137174505181859,
          0.3844936304601631,
          0.5074531597519448
        ],
        "high": [
          0.17238452529980086,
          0.30889727473742595,
          0.41845470206232915,
          0.5074531597519448,
          0.7344616457468673,
          0.8503310528839303
        ]
      }
    },
    {
      "id": "F039",
      "mode": "E",
      "q": "Will US on-highway diesel retail price average exceed US$6.50 per gallon in any post-cutoff month by the horizon?",
      "public": [
        15,
        27,
        37,
        45,
        68,
        80
      ],
      "agi": [
        14,
        26,
        36,
        44,
        68,
        81
      ],
      "resolver": "https://www.eia.gov/petroleum/gasdiesel/",
      "domain": "Energy, climate & food",
      "page": 23,
      "resolutionRule": "EIA monthly US all-types diesel retail series >6.50 USD/gallon for a completed calendar month after cutoff.",
      "adjudication": "Observe qualifying post-cutoff event by deadline for event questions; latest eligible reference period at deadline for states. Allow 90 days for scheduled statistical release, record period and vintage. No qualifying new release -> unavailable, not NO. Resolve events already confirmed YES without waiting. Two independent primary records for contested geopolitical claims; otherwise disputed/unresolved.",
      "rationale": "September diesel 6.29 and IEA middle-distillate deficit persist into 2027. Judgment, no fitted hazard.",
      "contextSourceIds": [
        "S0382"
      ],
      "contextSignalIds": [
        "G00843",
        "G00844"
      ],
      "publicExact": [
        0.14744146378881362,
        0.2684340659657277,
        0.3686793625137513,
        0.45247782583572926,
        0.6783767073239835,
        0.8035476205679135
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      "agiExact": [
        0.14189924960223055,
        0.26018924852882275,
        0.3595970622460783,
        0.4437337889814146,
        0.6751368192848953,
        0.8051505946750352
      ],
      "sensitivity": {
        "low": [
          0.07745089538502088,
          0.14744146378881362,
          0.21084943671806497,
          0.2684340659657277,
          0.45247782583572926,
          0.5830645887134683
        ],
        "high": [
          0.21084943671806497,
          0.3686793625137513,
          0.4892643657748947,
          0.5830645887134683,
          0.8035476205679135,
          0.9027038992807259
        ]
      }
    },
    {
      "id": "F040",
      "mode": "E",
      "q": "Will an EPRA monthly Nairobi diesel retail ceiling exceed KSh 250/litre by the horizon?",
      "public": [
        12,
        23,
        32,
        39,
        61,
        75
      ],
      "agi": [
        12,
        22,
        31,
        39,
        61,
        74
      ],
      "resolver": "https://www.epra.go.ke/pump-prices",
      "domain": "Energy, climate & food",
      "page": 23,
      "resolutionRule": "Any petroleum pricing schedule issued after 2026-10-19 and effective by horizon lists Nairobi automotive gas oil ceiling >250 KES/litre; exclude local noncompliant pump price.",
      "adjudication": "Observe qualifying post-cutoff event by deadline for event questions; latest eligible reference period at deadline for states. Allow 90 days for scheduled statistical release, record period and vintage. No qualifying new release -> unavailable, not NO. Resolve events already confirmed YES without waiting. Two independent primary records for contested geopolitical claims; otherwise disputed/unresolved.",
      "rationale": "October schedule rises to 227.76; imported distillate, FX and administered pass-through create upside tail.",
      "contextSourceIds": [
        "S0488"
      ],
      "contextSignalIds": [
        "G01111",
        "G01112"
      ],
      "publicExact": [
        0.1233157117589177,
        0.22798913861336986,
        0.31742640969533265,
        0.3943225777015063,
        0.6135233656497273,
        0.7452702106668458
      ],
      "agiExact": [
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        0.220449351737583,
        0.3086069480666487,
        0.38524166942408355,
        0.6080874780254895,
        0.7446094550398978
      ],
      "sensitivity": {
        "low": [
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          0.1233157117589177,
          0.1777509645585449,
          0.22798913861336986,
          0.3943225777015063,
          0.5186437422827325
        ],
        "high": [
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          0.31742640969533265,
          0.4287559489412069,
          0.5186437422827325,
          0.7452702106668458,
          0.858929306355487
        ]
      }
    },
    {
      "id": "F041",
      "mode": "E",
      "q": "Will the FAO Food Price Index exceed 150 in any post-cutoff month by the horizon?",
      "public": [
        13,
        24,
        33,
        41,
        64,
        77
      ],
      "agi": [
        13,
        23,
        33,
        40,
        63,
        77
      ],
      "resolver": "https://www.fao.org/worldfoodsituation/foodpricesindex/en/",
      "domain": "Energy, climate & food",
      "page": 23,
      "resolutionRule": "FAO nominal monthly all-food index 2014-2016=100 >150 for a month November 2026 onward and completed by horizon.",
      "adjudication": "Observe qualifying post-cutoff event by deadline for event questions; latest eligible reference period at deadline for states. Allow 90 days for scheduled statistical release, record period and vintage. No qualifying new release -> unavailable, not NO. Resolve events already confirmed YES without waiting. Two independent primary records for contested geopolitical claims; otherwise disputed/unresolved.",
      "rationale": "September 136; fuel, fertilizer, weather and export restrictions can co-move, while large global production buffers resist extreme outcomes.",
      "contextSourceIds": [
        "S0378",
        "S0407"
      ],
      "contextSignalIds": [
        "G00830",
        "G00831",
        "G00923",
        "G00924"
      ],
      "publicExact": [
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        0.24132581285257543,
        0.33449330415572137,
        0.41386118199084104,
        0.6359587212259116,
        0.7659129152559081
      ],
      "agiExact": [
        0.1261386284315974,
        0.2335309380409839,
        0.32554738291479074,
        0.4048416108741577,
        0.6312364811439684,
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      ],
      "sensitivity": {
        "low": [
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          0.13118570602751126,
          0.1886078321993319,
          0.24132581285257543,
          0.41386118199084104,
          0.5406292313752996
        ],
        "high": [
          0.18860783219933192,
          0.3344933041557213,
          0.44916996220053135,
          0.5406292313752996,
          0.7659129152559081,
          0.8749488364017743
        ]
      }
    },
    {
      "id": "F042",
      "mode": "E",
      "q": "Will FAO Cereal Price Index exceed 145 in any post-cutoff month by the horizon?",
      "public": [
        12,
        23,
        32,
        39,
        61,
        75
      ],
      "agi": [
        12,
        22,
        31,
        39,
        61,
        74
      ],
      "resolver": "https://www.fao.org/worldfoodsituation/foodpricesindex/en/",
      "domain": "Energy, climate & food",
      "page": 23,
      "resolutionRule": "FAO monthly cereal subindex >145 for a completed post-cutoff month, 2014-2016=100.",
      "adjudication": "Observe qualifying post-cutoff event by deadline for event questions; latest eligible reference period at deadline for states. Allow 90 days for scheduled statistical release, record period and vintage. No qualifying new release -> unavailable, not NO. Resolve events already confirmed YES without waiting. Two independent primary records for contested geopolitical claims; otherwise disputed/unresolved.",
      "rationale": "September 122.8 and +5.1 percent monthly; price threshold requires substantial additional shock.",
      "contextSourceIds": [
        "S0378",
        "S0441"
      ],
      "contextSignalIds": [
        "G00830",
        "G00831",
        "G01004",
        "G01005"
      ],
      "publicExact": [
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        0.31742640969533265,
        0.3943225777015063,
        0.6135233656497273,
        0.7452702106668458
      ],
      "agiExact": [
        0.11851908868549402,
        0.220449351737583,
        0.3086069480666487,
        0.38524166942408355,
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      "sensitivity": {
        "low": [
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          0.1777509645585449,
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          0.3943225777015063,
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        ],
        "high": [
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          0.31742640969533265,
          0.4287559489412069,
          0.5186437422827325,
          0.7452702106668458,
          0.858929306355487
        ]
      }
    },
    {
      "id": "F043",
      "mode": "E",
      "q": "Will FAO Vegetable Oil Price Index exceed 220 in any post-cutoff month by the horizon?",
      "public": [
        17,
        31,
        42,
        51,
        74,
        85
      ],
      "agi": [
        17,
        30,
        41,
        50,
        74,
        86
      ],
      "resolver": "https://www.fao.org/worldfoodsituation/foodpricesindex/en/",
      "domain": "Energy, climate & food",
      "page": 23,
      "resolutionRule": "FAO nominal monthly vegetable-oil subindex >220 in a completed post-cutoff month.",
      "adjudication": "Observe qualifying post-cutoff event by deadline for event questions; latest eligible reference period at deadline for states. Allow 90 days for scheduled statistical release, record period and vintage. No qualifying new release -> unavailable, not NO. Resolve events already confirmed YES without waiting. Two independent primary records for contested geopolitical claims; otherwise disputed/unresolved.",
      "rationale": "September 198.6; Southeast Asian drought and biofuel demand create sensitivity.",
      "contextSourceIds": [
        "S0378",
        "S0441"
      ],
      "contextSignalIds": [
        "G00830",
        "G00831",
        "G01004",
        "G01005"
      ],
      "publicExact": [
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        0.31031956330305654,
        0.4201771082445444,
        0.5093287503358369,
        0.736287439469323,
        0.8517933716656045
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      "agiExact": [
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        0.41118856707056006,
        0.5013628597767091,
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      "sensitivity": {
        "low": [
          0.09186220578871995,
          0.17327671298129674,
          0.24569013436305417,
          0.31031956330305654,
          0.5093287503358369,
          0.6430700574243008
        ],
        "high": [
          0.2456901343630542,
          0.4201771082445444,
          0.5476621721457848,
          0.6430700574243008,
          0.8517933716656045,
          0.9351854955301908
        ]
      }
    },
    {
      "id": "F044",
      "mode": "E",
      "q": "Will FAO forecast global cereal stocks-to-use below 30 percent in a release after cutoff and by horizon?",
      "public": [
        9,
        17,
        24,
        30,
        50,
        63
      ],
      "agi": [
        9,
        16,
        23,
        30,
        49,
        63
      ],
      "resolver": "https://www.fao.org/worldfoodsituation/csdb/en/",
      "domain": "Energy, climate & food",
      "page": 23,
      "resolutionRule": "A post-cutoff FAO Cereal Supply and Demand Brief forecasts ending-season all-cereal stocks/utilization ratio strictly below 30 percent for current/next crop marketing year; not rice-only ratio.",
      "adjudication": "Observe qualifying post-cutoff event by deadline for event questions; latest eligible reference period at deadline for states. Allow 90 days for scheduled statistical release, record period and vintage. No qualifying new release -> unavailable, not NO. Resolve events already confirmed YES without waiting. Two independent primary records for contested geopolitical claims; otherwise disputed/unresolved.",
      "rationale": "Latest 31.7 percent gives buffer; sequential crop/trade shocks could draw it down.",
      "contextSourceIds": [
        "S0379",
        "S0437"
      ],
      "contextSignalIds": [
        "G00835",
        "G00836",
        "G00992",
        "G00993"
      ],
      "publicExact": [
        0.08976351654984907,
        0.16954470184792514,
        0.2406956922047352,
        0.30435871809405984,
        0.501442605647599,
        0.6349227415630171
      ],
      "agiExact": [
        0.08611182903775805,
        0.16337791652089712,
        0.23291237271771176,
        0.2956620371659471,
        0.49334247747918736,
        0.6301663908166045
      ],
      "sensitivity": {
        "low": [
          0.04622337436092422,
          0.08976351654984907,
          0.13081200959623426,
          0.16954470184792514,
          0.30435871809405984,
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        ],
        "high": [
          0.13081200959623426,
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          0.7649707453215002
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      }
    },
    {
      "id": "F045",
      "mode": "E",
      "q": "Will FAO project world rice ending stocks below 210 million tonnes in a post-cutoff release by horizon?",
      "public": [
        12,
        21,
        30,
        37,
        59,
        72
      ],
      "agi": [
        11,
        21,
        29,
        37,
        58,
        72
      ],
      "resolver": "https://www.fao.org/worldfoodsituation/csdb/en/",
      "domain": "Energy, climate & food",
      "page": 24,
      "resolutionRule": "FAO global rice stocks on milled basis for currently forecast season <210 million tonnes in a dated release issued after cutoff and by horizon.",
      "adjudication": "Observe qualifying post-cutoff event by deadline for event questions; latest eligible reference period at deadline for states. Allow 90 days for scheduled statistical release, record period and vintage. No qualifying new release -> unavailable, not NO. Resolve events already confirmed YES without waiting. Two independent primary records for contested geopolitical claims; otherwise disputed/unresolved.",
      "rationale": "Current 216.9 million forecast and El Nino-related Asian crop uncertainty.",
      "contextSourceIds": [
        "S0379",
        "S0437"
      ],
      "contextSignalIds": [
        "G00835",
        "G00836",
        "G00992",
        "G00993"
      ],
      "publicExact": [
        0.11560539067505232,
        0.2147871182222284,
        0.3003702366894955,
        0.37462416627888406,
        0.5902293234721726,
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      "agiExact": [
        0.1110608672393221,
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        0.29171548165555194,
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        0.5841114179858057,
        0.7217885086961753
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      "sensitivity": {
        "low": [
          0.06005783059202893,
          0.11560539067505232,
          0.16705802150799035,
          0.2147871182222284,
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        ],
        "high": [
          0.16705802150799035,
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      }
    },
    {
      "id": "F046",
      "mode": "E",
      "q": "Will at least 4 million people in Kenya ASALs be classified IPC Phase 3 plus in a post-cutoff current or projected period by horizon?",
      "public": [
        8,
        15,
        22,
        27,
        46,
        59
      ],
      "agi": [
        8,
        14,
        21,
        27,
        45,
        58
      ],
      "resolver": "https://www.ipcinfo.org/ipc-country-analysis/en/",
      "domain": "Energy, climate & food",
      "page": 24,
      "resolutionRule": "IPC Kenya analysis issued after cutoff has ASAL-only current/projected IPC 3 plus headcount\u22654 million for a period starting no earlier than cutoff and ending by horizon; exclude refugee population double count.",
      "adjudication": "Observe qualifying post-cutoff event by deadline for event questions; latest eligible reference period at deadline for states. Allow 90 days for scheduled statistical release, record period and vintage. No qualifying new release -> unavailable, not NO. Resolve events already confirmed YES without waiting. Two independent primary records for contested geopolitical claims; otherwise disputed/unresolved.",
      "rationale": "Current 2.7 million expected 2.1 million by Jan 2027 but flood, food price and aid shocks can reverse recovery.",
      "contextSourceIds": [
        "S0405"
      ],
      "contextSignalIds": [
        "G00915",
        "G00916"
      ],
      "publicExact": [
        0.07918221118294869,
        0.15057105447388178,
        0.21510306674144464,
        0.2735856811612059,
        0.45965257411009225,
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      ],
      "agiExact": [
        0.07591709207011169,
        0.1449369776673222,
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        0.26526587426404113,
        0.4509823405666965,
        0.5846978560150904
      ],
      "sensitivity": {
        "low": [
          0.040629452777069267,
          0.07918221118294869,
          0.11578899487215505,
          0.15057105447388178,
          0.2735856811612059,
          0.3750997710530956
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        "high": [
          0.11578899487215505,
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          0.7238593893889924
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      }
    },
    {
      "id": "F047",
      "mode": "E",
      "q": "Will Somalia IPC Phase 3 plus headcount reach 6.5 million in a post-cutoff period by horizon?",
      "public": [
        17,
        30,
        41,
        50,
        73,
        84
      ],
      "agi": [
        16,
        29,
        40,
        49,
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        85
      ],
      "resolver": "https://www.ipcinfo.org/ipc-country-analysis/en/",
      "domain": "Energy, climate & food",
      "page": 24,
      "resolutionRule": "IPC Somalia dated analysis post cutoff reports/project\u22656.5 million IPC 3 plus in current/projected national analysis period ending by horizon.",
      "adjudication": "Observe qualifying post-cutoff event by deadline for event questions; latest eligible reference period at deadline for states. Allow 90 days for scheduled statistical release, record period and vintage. No qualifying new release -> unavailable, not NO. Resolve events already confirmed YES without waiting. Two independent primary records for contested geopolitical claims; otherwise disputed/unresolved.",
      "rationale": "Drought legacies, forecast floods, conflict and funding shortfall create broad downside.",
      "contextSourceIds": [
        "S0405"
      ],
      "contextSignalIds": [
        "G00915",
        "G00916"
      ],
      "publicExact": [
        0.16883832006077806,
        0.3032270858662851,
        0.4115697068297023,
        0.4999378876585337,
        0.7270882898664497,
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      "agiExact": [
        0.16269061696214882,
        0.294542089497128,
        0.4025402325167242,
        0.4918131009679892,
        0.7257094515065864,
        0.8473849190192866
      ],
      "sensitivity": {
        "low": [
          0.08936693460762596,
          0.16883832006077806,
          0.23974890250324515,
          0.3032270858662851,
          0.49993788765853375,
          0.6333617099261791
        ],
        "high": [
          0.23974890250324515,
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          0.5380686842530689,
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          0.84438525271236,
          0.9304484169907918
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      }
    },
    {
      "id": "F048",
      "mode": "E",
      "q": "Will Sudan IPC Phase 3 plus headcount exceed 22 million in a post-cutoff period by horizon?",
      "public": [
        20,
        35,
        47,
        57,
        79,
        89
      ],
      "agi": [
        19,
        34,
        46,
        56,
        79,
        90
      ],
      "resolver": "https://www.ipcinfo.org/ipc-country-analysis/en/",
      "domain": "Energy, climate & food",
      "page": 24,
      "resolutionRule": "National or explicitly near-national IPC Sudan current/projected headcount>22 million in analysis released post cutoff; exclude inaccessible-population extrapolations absent IPC endorsement.",
      "adjudication": "Observe qualifying post-cutoff event by deadline for event questions; latest eligible reference period at deadline for states. Allow 90 days for scheduled statistical release, record period and vintage. No qualifying new release -> unavailable, not NO. Resolve events already confirmed YES without waiting. Two independent primary records for contested geopolitical claims; otherwise disputed/unresolved.",
      "rationale": "Prior 19.5 million plus 2026 dry weather, conflict and displaced agricultural labor.",
      "contextSourceIds": [
        "S0405"
      ],
      "contextSignalIds": [
        "G00915",
        "G00916"
      ],
      "publicExact": [
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        0.3539431719535381,
        0.47211142435230324,
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      "agiExact": [
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        0.34490040684116396,
        0.4635861586265785,
        0.5582488539785843,
        0.788922523343254,
        0.8955239001905265
      ],
      "sensitivity": {
        "low": [
          0.107739562837134,
          0.2011791192096432,
          0.28262094054778475,
          0.3539431719535381,
          0.5650318236854792,
          0.6989803200971915
        ],
        "high": [
          0.28262094054778475,
          0.47211142435230324,
          0.6041207389272466,
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          0.8914089916034054,
          0.9587463994558612
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      }
    },
    {
      "id": "F049",
      "mode": "E",
      "q": "Will a post-cutoff IPC analysis confirm famine in at least one new geographic area in Somalia by horizon?",
      "public": [
        7,
        13,
        18,
        23,
        40,
        53
      ],
      "agi": [
        6,
        12,
        17,
        22,
        39,
        52
      ],
      "resolver": "https://www.ipcinfo.org/famine-review-committee/en/",
      "domain": "Energy, climate & food",
      "page": 24,
      "resolutionRule": "IPC Famine Review Committee formally classifies Famine IPC 5 at area level in Somalia for a period after cutoff and before horizon; a risk-of-famine warning or household IPC 5 does not qualify.",
      "adjudication": "Observe qualifying post-cutoff event by deadline for event questions; latest eligible reference period at deadline for states. Allow 90 days for scheduled statistical release, record period and vintage. No qualifying new release -> unavailable, not NO. Resolve events already confirmed YES without waiting. Two independent primary records for contested geopolitical claims; otherwise disputed/unresolved.",
      "rationale": "FEWS NET explicitly labels 1997-scale flooding an adverse possibility not most likely; classification evidence could remain incomplete.",
      "contextSourceIds": [
        "S0405"
      ],
      "contextSignalIds": [
        "G00915",
        "G00916"
      ],
      "publicExact": [
        0.06548692920741737,
        0.12562036796315904,
        0.18093631260859644,
        0.23190912780814557,
        0.40010287910168163,
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      "agiExact": [
        0.06273994516270275,
        0.1207496810409509,
        0.17446988288876542,
        0.22429207889391642,
        0.39103466944351495,
        0.5175132159237154
      ],
      "sensitivity": {
        "low": [
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          0.06548692920741737,
          0.09618779291961067,
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        "high": [
          0.09618779291961067,
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          0.2559001627897003,
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          0.6592772323296557
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      }
    },
    {
      "id": "F050",
      "mode": "E",
      "q": "Will maize prices in Nairobi exceed their year-earlier level by 30 percent in any post-cutoff month by horizon?",
      "public": [
        14,
        25,
        35,
        43,
        66,
        79
      ],
      "agi": [
        13,
        25,
        34,
        42,
        65,
        79
      ],
      "resolver": "https://fpma.fao.org/giews/fpmat4/",
      "domain": "Energy, climate & food",
      "page": 24,
      "resolutionRule": "Use FAO GIEWS FPMA Nairobi wholesale maize price in same unit/currency:100 * (P_t / P_{t-12} - 1) > 30 for any completed post cutoff month; retain series identifier and market grade.",
      "adjudication": "Observe qualifying post-cutoff event by deadline for event questions; latest eligible reference period at deadline for states. Allow 90 days for scheduled statistical release, record period and vintage. No qualifying new release -> unavailable, not NO. Resolve events already confirmed YES without waiting. Two independent primary records for contested geopolitical claims; otherwise disputed/unresolved.",
      "rationale": "Fuel and grain-import shocks transmit to Nairobi but domestic/regional harvest diversity buffers.",
      "contextSourceIds": [
        "S0448",
        "S0436"
      ],
      "contextSignalIds": [
        "G01024",
        "G01025",
        "G00990",
        "G00991"
      ],
      "publicExact": [
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        0.7853164645890705
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      "agiExact": [
        0.13392866834888995,
        0.2467745400850949,
        0.3425421514614924,
        0.4243377112300414,
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        0.7862294214250222
      ],
      "sensitivity": {
        "low": [
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          0.13922435212525158,
          0.19963744867661498,
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          0.4332446353077529,
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        "high": [
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      }
    },
    {
      "id": "F051",
      "mode": "E",
      "q": "Will global monthly ERA5 surface air temperature anomaly exceed 1.80 degrees above 1850-1900 in a post-cutoff month by horizon?",
      "public": [
        25,
        43,
        56,
        66,
        86,
        94
      ],
      "agi": [
        25,
        42,
        55,
        65,
        86,
        95
      ],
      "resolver": "https://climate.copernicus.eu/climate-bulletin",
      "domain": "Energy, climate & food",
      "page": 24,
      "resolutionRule": "Copernicus monthly global surface air temperature bulletin reports anomaly>1.80 C versus 1850-1900 for a month after Oct 2026; use published official conversion.",
      "adjudication": "Observe qualifying post-cutoff event by deadline for event questions; latest eligible reference period at deadline for states. Allow 90 days for scheduled statistical release, record period and vintage. No qualifying new release -> unavailable, not NO. Resolve events already confirmed YES without waiting. Two independent primary records for contested geopolitical claims; otherwise disputed/unresolved.",
      "rationale": "September 1.63 C and strengthening El Nino increase near-term risk; this does not imply sustained Paris threshold breach.",
      "contextSourceIds": [
        "S0396"
      ],
      "contextSignalIds": [
        "G00889",
        "G00890"
      ],
      "publicExact": [
        0.25371557011602935,
        0.4316918481676882,
        0.5603911172016833,
        0.6558592988997441,
        0.8613156587132268,
        0.9411290638899111
      ],
      "agiExact": [
        0.2457035695566066,
        0.4227739954072686,
        0.5534942451652107,
        0.651812589577357,
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        0.9452632544699852
      ],
      "sensitivity": {
        "low": [
          0.1385715926541393,
          0.25371557011602935,
          0.35020171888685564,
          0.4316918481676882,
          0.6558592988997443,
          0.7838006322901131
        ],
        "high": [
          0.3502017188868557,
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          0.694432864035712,
          0.783800632290113,
          0.9411290638899111,
          0.983177392901598
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      }
    },
    {
      "id": "F052",
      "mode": "E",
      "q": "Will the trailing 12-month ERA5 global temperature anomaly exceed 1.65 degrees above 1850-1900 by horizon?",
      "public": [
        22,
        38,
        51,
        60,
        82,
        91
      ],
      "agi": [
        21,
        38,
        50,
        60,
        82,
        92
      ],
      "resolver": "https://climate.copernicus.eu/climate-bulletin",
      "domain": "Energy, climate & food",
      "page": 25,
      "resolutionRule": "Any post cutoff Copernicus bulletin reports 12-month running global anomaly>1.65 C with trailing window ending by horizon.",
      "adjudication": "Observe qualifying post-cutoff event by deadline for event questions; latest eligible reference period at deadline for states. Allow 90 days for scheduled statistical release, record period and vintage. No qualifying new release -> unavailable, not NO. Resolve events already confirmed YES without waiting. Two independent primary records for contested geopolitical claims; otherwise disputed/unresolved.",
      "rationale": "Persistent warming and ENSO; use run-mean and monthly anomaly as separate questions with strong correlation.",
      "contextSourceIds": [
        "S0396"
      ],
      "contextSignalIds": [
        "G00889",
        "G00890"
      ],
      "publicExact": [
        0.22116553433111266,
        0.3841859010038761,
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      "agiExact": [
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        0.4990967317328642,
        0.5958295883726495,
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        0.9178998125979976
      ],
      "sensitivity": {
        "low": [
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          0.22116553433111266,
          0.3086308410319698,
          0.3841859010038761,
          0.601621741681926,
          0.7341185731009864
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        "high": [
          0.3086308410319698,
          0.5071013866094,
          0.6407747133425855,
          0.7341185731009864,
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          0.9704462477863696
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      }
    },
    {
      "id": "F053",
      "mode": "E",
      "q": "Will Kenya experience a post-cutoff flood disaster with at least 100 confirmed deaths by horizon?",
      "public": [
        10,
        18,
        26,
        32,
        53,
        66
      ],
      "agi": [
        9,
        18,
        25,
        32,
        52,
        66
      ],
      "resolver": "https://www.ifrc.org/emergencies",
      "domain": "Energy, climate & food",
      "page": 25,
      "resolutionRule": "One hydrometeorological episode with onset after cutoff causes\u2265100 confirmed Kenyan deaths according to Government/NDOC/IFRC final or latest consolidated report; exclude missing people and avoid overlapping reports.",
      "adjudication": "Observe qualifying post-cutoff event by deadline for event questions; latest eligible reference period at deadline for states. Allow 90 days for scheduled statistical release, record period and vintage. No qualifying new release -> unavailable, not NO. Resolve events already confirmed YES without waiting. Two independent primary records for contested geopolitical claims; otherwise disputed/unresolved.",
      "rationale": "Enhanced OND rain and exposure; exact mortality is response-dependent, not rainfall-only.",
      "contextSourceIds": [
        "S0485",
        "S0482"
      ],
      "contextSignalIds": [
        "G01104",
        "G01105",
        "G01097",
        "G01098"
      ],
      "publicExact": [
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      "agiExact": [
        0.09306747365955986,
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        0.249669317959372,
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        0.5204009085050457,
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      ],
      "sensitivity": {
        "low": [
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          0.09697570068601527,
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        ],
        "high": [
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          0.355283600473967,
          0.43742888470348995,
          0.6621471373314524,
          0.78936816382082
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      }
    },
    {
      "id": "F054",
      "mode": "E",
      "q": "Will at least three Kenya ASAL counties be classified Alarm or Emergency drought stage in one post-cutoff NDMA monthly bulletin by horizon?",
      "public": [
        10,
        20,
        27,
        34,
        55,
        69
      ],
      "agi": [
        10,
        19,
        27,
        34,
        55,
        68
      ],
      "resolver": "https://knowledgeweb.ndma.go.ke/",
      "domain": "Energy, climate & food",
      "page": 25,
      "resolutionRule": "NDMA national bulletin month after Oct 2026 classifies\u22653 distinct ASAL counties Alarm/Emergency; Recovery/Alert/Normal do not qualify.",
      "adjudication": "Observe qualifying post-cutoff event by deadline for event questions; latest eligible reference period at deadline for states. Allow 90 days for scheduled statistical release, record period and vintage. No qualifying new release -> unavailable, not NO. Resolve events already confirmed YES without waiting. Two independent primary records for contested geopolitical claims; otherwise disputed/unresolved.",
      "rationale": "Regional wet forecast does not eliminate local dry spells or next-season drought.",
      "contextSourceIds": [
        "S0482",
        "S0594"
      ],
      "contextSignalIds": [
        "G01097",
        "G01098",
        "G01322",
        "G01323"
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      "publicExact": [
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      "sensitivity": {
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      }
    },
    {
      "id": "F055",
      "mode": "E",
      "q": "Will drought force a new national electricity load-shedding schedule in Zambia after cutoff and by horizon?",
      "public": [
        19,
        34,
        45,
        55,
        77,
        88
      ],
      "agi": [
        18,
        33,
        45,
        54,
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      ],
      "resolver": "https://www.zesco.co.zm/",
      "domain": "Energy, climate & food",
      "page": 25,
      "resolutionRule": "ZESCO or Zambia government announces a new or worsened scheduled load-shedding regime explicitly attributed in substantial part to hydrological shortage, after cutoff; routine outage notices do not count.",
      "adjudication": "Observe qualifying post-cutoff event by deadline for event questions; latest eligible reference period at deadline for states. Allow 90 days for scheduled statistical release, record period and vintage. No qualifying new release -> unavailable, not NO. Resolve events already confirmed YES without waiting. Two independent primary records for contested geopolitical claims; otherwise disputed/unresolved.",
      "rationale": "Southern Africa El Nino drought pathway plus hydro dependence and food-energy coupling.",
      "contextSourceIds": [
        "S0474",
        "S0432"
      ],
      "contextSignalIds": [
        "G01079",
        "G01080",
        "G00979",
        "G00980"
      ],
      "publicExact": [
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      "sensitivity": {
        "low": [
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        "high": [
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      }
    },
    {
      "id": "F056",
      "mode": "E",
      "q": "Will Kenya hydropower share fall below 15 percent of grid electricity supplied in a complete post-cutoff quarter by horizon?",
      "public": [
        5,
        9,
        14,
        18,
        32,
        43
      ],
      "agi": [
        5,
        9,
        13,
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      ],
      "resolver": "https://www.epra.go.ke/statistics-0",
      "domain": "Energy, climate & food",
      "page": 25,
      "resolutionRule": "EPRA energy statistics: domestic hydro-generated electricity divided by total grid supply including imports<15 percent in a full quarter beginning after cutoff; use GWh not installed capacity.",
      "adjudication": "Observe qualifying post-cutoff event by deadline for event questions; latest eligible reference period at deadline for states. Allow 90 days for scheduled statistical release, record period and vintage. No qualifying new release -> unavailable, not NO. Resolve events already confirmed YES without waiting. Two independent primary records for contested geopolitical claims; otherwise disputed/unresolved.",
      "rationale": "Near-term wet forecast supports hydro but dry-season/regional risks remain; geothermal limits broader shortage.",
      "contextSourceIds": [
        "S0488"
      ],
      "contextSignalIds": [
        "G01111",
        "G01112"
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      "publicExact": [
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      "sensitivity": {
        "low": [
          0.024879486747421506,
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        "high": [
          0.07232130381303169,
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          0.19813580468012415,
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      }
    },
    {
      "id": "F057",
      "mode": "E",
      "q": "Will at least one commercial shipping attack in Red Sea/Gulf Aden cause confirmed seafarer death after cutoff and by horizon?",
      "public": [
        27,
        45,
        58,
        67,
        87,
        95
      ],
      "agi": [
        26,
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      "resolver": "https://www.imo.org/en/mediacentre/hottopics/pages/red-sea.aspx",
      "domain": "Energy, climate & food",
      "page": 25,
      "resolutionRule": "IMO confirms post cutoff attack and\u22651 seafarer death in Red Sea/Gulf Aden; exclude unconfirmed claims, piracy without death and incidents in Hormuz.",
      "adjudication": "Observe qualifying post-cutoff event by deadline for event questions; latest eligible reference period at deadline for states. Allow 90 days for scheduled statistical release, record period and vintage. No qualifying new release -> unavailable, not NO. Resolve events already confirmed YES without waiting. Two independent primary records for contested geopolitical claims; otherwise disputed/unresolved.",
      "rationale": "Repeated confirmed 2026 fatal attacks and security fragmentation; operational exposure depends on transit volumes.",
      "contextSourceIds": [
        "S0419",
        "S0417"
      ],
      "contextSignalIds": [
        "G00952",
        "G00953",
        "G00947",
        "G00948"
      ],
      "publicExact": [
        0.2653837868936708,
        0.4482051671378516,
        0.5784359516718366,
        0.6738075964017308,
        0.8742214463147014,
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      "agiExact": [
        0.2571849638806066,
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        0.5719970919555665,
        0.6704006784078573,
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      "sensitivity": {
        "low": [
          0.14559459438344013,
          0.2653837868936708,
          0.36486636204787004,
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        "high": [
          0.36486636204787,
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          0.7120008630187763,
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          0.9863460643336207
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      }
    },
    {
      "id": "F058",
      "mode": "E",
      "q": "Will at least one commercial shipping attack in Strait of Hormuz/Persian Gulf cause confirmed seafarer death after cutoff and by horizon?",
      "public": [
        19,
        33,
        45,
        54,
        76,
        87
      ],
      "agi": [
        18,
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      ],
      "resolver": "https://www.imo.org/en/mediacentre/pressbriefings/default.aspx",
      "domain": "Energy, climate & food",
      "page": 25,
      "resolutionRule": "IMO confirms post cutoff attack in Hormuz/Persian Gulf causing\u22651 seafarer death; exclude Red Sea and unconfirmed military claims.",
      "adjudication": "Observe qualifying post-cutoff event by deadline for event questions; latest eligible reference period at deadline for states. Allow 90 days for scheduled statistical release, record period and vintage. No qualifying new release -> unavailable, not NO. Resolve events already confirmed YES without waiting. Two independent primary records for contested geopolitical claims; otherwise disputed/unresolved.",
      "rationale": "Persistent attacks and incomplete safe-passage restoration; linked to fuel tails.",
      "contextSourceIds": [
        "S0417",
        "S0419"
      ],
      "contextSignalIds": [
        "G00947",
        "G00948",
        "G00952",
        "G00953"
      ],
      "publicExact": [
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        0.4460753929253726,
        0.5373128153083583,
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      "agiExact": [
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        0.43727147822398826,
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        0.7628841805452294,
        0.8763628662141641
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      "sensitivity": {
        "low": [
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          0.18694256366058715,
          0.2638681764604932,
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        "high": [
          0.2638681764604932,
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          0.5761225463134403,
          0.6715185963522051,
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          0.9479537923894696
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      }
    },
    {
      "id": "F059",
      "mode": "E",
      "q": "Will Panama Canal impose an authorized Neopanamax draft of 14.0 metres TFW or lower in a post-cutoff advisory by horizon?",
      "public": [
        17,
        31,
        42,
        51,
        74,
        85
      ],
      "agi": [
        17,
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        41,
        50,
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      ],
      "resolver": "https://pancanal.com/en/maritime-services/advisory-to-shipping/",
      "domain": "Energy, climate & food",
      "page": 26,
      "resolutionRule": "Canal Authority advisory issued after cutoff specifies maximum Neopanamax draft\u226414.0 m TFW effective by horizon due water availability; exclude vessel-specific drafts.",
      "adjudication": "Observe qualifying post-cutoff event by deadline for event questions; latest eligible reference period at deadline for states. Allow 90 days for scheduled statistical release, record period and vintage. No qualifying new release -> unavailable, not NO. Resolve events already confirmed YES without waiting. Two independent primary records for contested geopolitical claims; otherwise disputed/unresolved.",
      "rationale": "Below expected rainfall and 2026 draft adjustments; ENSO also affects physical trade capacity.",
      "contextSourceIds": [
        "S0415",
        "S0416"
      ],
      "contextSignalIds": [
        "G00942",
        "G00943",
        "G00945",
        "G00946"
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      "publicExact": [
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      "agiExact": [
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        0.3015640979207296,
        0.41118856707056006,
        0.5013628597767091,
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      "sensitivity": {
        "low": [
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        "high": [
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    },
    {
      "id": "F060",
      "mode": "E",
      "q": "Will Kenya Power annual electricity unit sales grow at least 8 percent in one post-cutoff fiscal-year results release by horizon?",
      "public": [
        22,
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        51,
        61,
        83,
        92
      ],
      "agi": [
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      ],
      "resolver": "https://kplc.co.ke/investor-relations",
      "domain": "Energy, climate & food",
      "page": 26,
      "resolutionRule": "KPLC audited or official preliminary annual result released after cutoff reports annual GWh unit sales growth\u22658 percent vs prior FY, excluding nominal revenue growth.",
      "adjudication": "Observe qualifying post-cutoff event by deadline for event questions; latest eligible reference period at deadline for states. Allow 90 days for scheduled statistical release, record period and vintage. No qualifying new release -> unavailable, not NO. Resolve events already confirmed YES without waiting. Two independent primary records for contested geopolitical claims; otherwise disputed/unresolved.",
      "rationale": "FY2026 sales+12 percent from connection growth; fuel prices/affordability pose demand risk.",
      "contextSourceIds": [
        "S0477",
        "S0478"
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      "contextSignalIds": [
        "G01086",
        "G01087",
        "G01088",
        "G01089"
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      "publicExact": [
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      "agiExact": [
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      "sensitivity": {
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        "high": [
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      }
    },
    {
      "id": "F061",
      "mode": "E",
      "q": "Will global renewable power capacity additions exceed 700 GW in a calendar year documented after cutoff and by horizon?",
      "public": [
        27,
        46,
        60,
        70,
        89,
        96
      ],
      "agi": [
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      "resolver": "https://www.irena.org/Data",
      "domain": "Energy, climate & food",
      "page": 26,
      "resolutionRule": "IRENA Renewable Capacity Statistics post cutoff release reports net global renewable capacity addition>700 GW for a completed year; exclude gross orders or announced projects.",
      "adjudication": "Observe qualifying post-cutoff event by deadline for event questions; latest eligible reference period at deadline for states. Allow 90 days for scheduled statistical release, record period and vintage. No qualifying new release -> unavailable, not NO. Resolve events already confirmed YES without waiting. Two independent primary records for contested geopolitical claims; otherwise disputed/unresolved.",
      "rationale": "2025 addition 692 GW and declining costs; grids/financing remain constraints.",
      "contextSourceIds": [
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        "S0389"
      ],
      "contextSignalIds": [
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        "G00871"
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      "publicExact": [
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      "agiExact": [
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      "sensitivity": {
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        "high": [
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    },
    {
      "id": "F062",
      "mode": "E",
      "q": "Will global utility battery system turnkey average cost fall below US$100/kWh in a post-cutoff annual survey by horizon?",
      "public": [
        18,
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        53,
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        87
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      "agi": [
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      "resolver": "https://www.irena.org/Publications",
      "domain": "Energy, climate & food",
      "page": 26,
      "resolutionRule": "BNEF or IRENA source explicitly citing global volume-weighted turnkey battery energy storage-system price, battery plus balance of system scope comparable to 2025 survey, <100 USD/kWh; exclude cell-only and China-only lowest bid.",
      "adjudication": "Observe qualifying post-cutoff event by deadline for event questions; latest eligible reference period at deadline for states. Allow 90 days for scheduled statistical release, record period and vintage. No qualifying new release -> unavailable, not NO. Resolve events already confirmed YES without waiting. Two independent primary records for contested geopolitical claims; otherwise disputed/unresolved.",
      "rationale": "2025 average below 120 and 31 percent fall; commodity/logistics shock and tariffs could slow decline.",
      "contextSourceIds": [
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        "S0389"
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      "contextSignalIds": [
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        "G00873",
        "G00870",
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      "publicExact": [
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        "high": [
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    },
    {
      "id": "F063",
      "mode": "S",
      "q": "WHO next World Malaria Report estimates global annual malaria cases above 280 million",
      "public": [
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        67,
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        68,
        68
      ],
      "agi": [
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      "resolver": "https://www.who.int/teams/global-malaria-programme/reports/world-malaria-report-2025",
      "domain": "Health & society",
      "page": 27,
      "resolutionRule": "280 million annual cases",
      "adjudication": "Observe qualifying post-cutoff event by deadline for event questions; latest eligible reference period at deadline for states. Allow 90 days for scheduled statistical release, record period and vintage. No qualifying new release -> unavailable, not NO. Resolve events already confirmed YES without waiting. Two independent primary records for contested geopolitical claims; otherwise disputed/unresolved.",
      "rationale": "2024 estimate 282m; resistance and finance pressures, but interventions can improve outcomes.",
      "contextSourceIds": [
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        "S0055"
      ],
      "contextSignalIds": [
        "G00057",
        "G00058",
        "G00117",
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      "publicExact": [
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      "sensitivity": {
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      }
    },
    {
      "id": "F064",
      "mode": "S",
      "q": "WHO next World Malaria Report estimates global annual malaria deaths above 600000",
      "public": [
        61,
        62,
        62,
        63,
        63,
        63
      ],
      "agi": [
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      "resolver": "https://www.who.int/teams/global-malaria-programme/reports/world-malaria-report-2025",
      "domain": "Health & society",
      "page": 27,
      "resolutionRule": "600000 annual deaths",
      "adjudication": "Observe qualifying post-cutoff event by deadline for event questions; latest eligible reference period at deadline for states. Allow 90 days for scheduled statistical release, record period and vintage. No qualifying new release -> unavailable, not NO. Resolve events already confirmed YES without waiting. Two independent primary records for contested geopolitical claims; otherwise disputed/unresolved.",
      "rationale": "2024 estimate 610000; uncertain future case mix and intervention access.",
      "contextSourceIds": [
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        "S0026"
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      "contextSignalIds": [
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        "G00053",
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      "publicExact": [
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      "sensitivity": {
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    {
      "id": "F087",
      "mode": "S",
      "q": "WHO next global diabetes burden estimate exceeds850million people",
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      "resolver": "https://www.who.int/news-room/fact-sheets/detail/diabetes",
      "domain": "Health & society",
      "page": 30,
      "resolutionRule": "global diabetes prevalence count >850000000",
      "adjudication": "Observe qualifying post-cutoff event by deadline for event questions; latest eligible reference period at deadline for states. Allow 90 days for scheduled statistical release, record period and vintage. No qualifying new release -> unavailable, not NO. Resolve events already confirmed YES without waiting. Two independent primary records for contested geopolitical claims; otherwise disputed/unresolved.",
      "rationale": "2022estimate830m after longrunincrease; access and revisedmethods could alter trend.",
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        "S0092",
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    {
      "id": "F088",
      "mode": "S",
      "q": "WHO global reported road traffic mortality estimate exceedsone million annually",
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      "resolver": "https://www.who.int/news-room/fact-sheets/detail/road-traffic-injuries",
      "domain": "Health & society",
      "page": 30,
      "resolutionRule": "annual global road traffic deaths >1000000",
      "adjudication": "Observe qualifying post-cutoff event by deadline for event questions; latest eligible reference period at deadline for states. Allow 90 days for scheduled statistical release, record period and vintage. No qualifying new release -> unavailable, not NO. Resolve events already confirmed YES without waiting. Two independent primary records for contested geopolitical claims; otherwise disputed/unresolved.",
      "rationale": "Large persistent burden and concentrationinLMICs; conditional on anewqualifyingreport.",
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    {
      "id": "F089",
      "mode": "E",
      "q": "Will METR publish a frontier-model 50%-task horizon of at least 48 hours?",
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      "resolver": "https://metr.org/research/",
      "domain": "AI, science & hardware",
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      "resolutionRule": "YES on a dated METR technical release reporting a point estimate >=48 human-work hours on a named software-task suite, with at least 30 tasks having estimated human duration >=8h. Preserve method version; saturating estimate without finite point estimate does not qualify.",
      "adjudication": "Observe qualifying post-cutoff event by deadline for event questions; latest eligible reference period at deadline for states. Allow 90 days for scheduled statistical release, record period and vintage. No qualifying new release -> unavailable, not NO. Resolve events already confirmed YES without waiting. Two independent primary records for contested geopolitical claims; otherwise disputed/unresolved.",
      "rationale": "Long-task capability is advancing, but measurement ceiling, estimated human baselines and reward hacks create large uncertainty.",
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      "id": "F090",
      "mode": "E",
      "q": "Will METR publish a frontier-model 80%-task horizon of at least 24 hours?",
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      "resolver": "https://metr.org/research/",
      "domain": "AI, science & hardware",
      "page": 31,
      "resolutionRule": "YES if a named METR study reports >=24h at 80% success, with methodology and task inclusion rules public. A 50%-horizon or developer testimonial does not qualify.",
      "adjudication": "Observe qualifying post-cutoff event by deadline for event questions; latest eligible reference period at deadline for states. Allow 90 days for scheduled statistical release, record period and vintage. No qualifying new release -> unavailable, not NO. Resolve events already confirmed YES without waiting. Two independent primary records for contested geopolitical claims; otherwise disputed/unresolved.",
      "rationale": "Higher reliability thresholds lag 50% horizons and matter more for clinical operations.",
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    {
      "id": "F091",
      "mode": "E",
      "q": "Will a peer-reviewed trial in at least two African countries show improved patient outcomes from clinician-facing generative AI?",
      "public": [
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      "resolver": "https://pubmed.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/",
      "domain": "AI, science & hardware",
      "page": 31,
      "resolutionRule": "YES for published prospective randomized trial, >=1000 total patients, >=2 African countries, prespecified patient clinical outcome with corrected two-sided P<.05 and effect favouring AI. Documentation, vignette accuracy and uncorrected secondary outcomes do not qualify.",
      "adjudication": "Observe qualifying post-cutoff event by deadline for event questions; latest eligible reference period at deadline for states. Allow 90 days for scheduled statistical release, record period and vintage. No qualifying new release -> unavailable, not NO. Resolve events already confirmed YES without waiting. Two independent primary records for contested geopolitical claims; otherwise disputed/unresolved.",
      "rationale": "The Kenyan Penda trial improved process measures but did not meet its primary treatment-failure endpoint.",
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      "publicExact": [
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      "id": "F092",
      "mode": "E",
      "q": "Will a Kenyan public-sector randomized trial show at least a 20% reduction in clinician documentation time from generative AI?",
      "public": [
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      "resolver": "https://pubmed.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/",
      "domain": "AI, science & hardware",
      "page": 31,
      "resolutionRule": "YES for peer-reviewed prospective randomized trial in >=3 Kenyan public facilities, >=100 clinicians, EHR-log or observer-measured documentation time relative reduction >=20%, with prespecified time endpoint and P<.05.",
      "adjudication": "Observe qualifying post-cutoff event by deadline for event questions; latest eligible reference period at deadline for states. Allow 90 days for scheduled statistical release, record period and vintage. No qualifying new release -> unavailable, not NO. Resolve events already confirmed YES without waiting. Two independent primary records for contested geopolitical claims; otherwise disputed/unresolved.",
      "rationale": "Ambient scribing evidence is expanding but local infrastructure and workflows determine realized gains.",
      "contextSourceIds": [
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      "publicExact": [
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    {
      "id": "F093",
      "mode": "E",
      "q": "Will a prospective African medical voice-AI study meet a 10% or lower clinical entity error rate in both English and Kiswahili?",
      "public": [
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      "agi": [
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      "resolver": "https://pubmed.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/",
      "domain": "AI, science & hardware",
      "page": 31,
      "resolutionRule": "YES if a peer-reviewed prospective study reports <=10% prespecified clinical entity error on >=100 independently held-out clinical encounters in each language, includes code-switching, and reports denominator and human gold-standard process.",
      "adjudication": "Observe qualifying post-cutoff event by deadline for event questions; latest eligible reference period at deadline for states. Allow 90 days for scheduled statistical release, record period and vintage. No qualifying new release -> unavailable, not NO. Resolve events already confirmed YES without waiting. Two independent primary records for contested geopolitical claims; otherwise disputed/unresolved.",
      "rationale": "African speech benchmarks show promise but context, noise and language-specific clinical errors remain gaps.",
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      "publicExact": [
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    {
      "id": "F094",
      "mode": "E",
      "q": "Will the cost of a frozen Pawanax-like evaluation workload fall by at least 50%?",
      "public": [
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      "agi": [
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      "resolver": "https://www.anthropic.com/transparency",
      "domain": "AI, science & hardware",
      "page": 31,
      "resolutionRule": "Freeze 100 anonymized clinician-approved synthetic workflow tasks and an expert pass threshold at baseline. YES if a generally available commercial API meets that same threshold at <=50% baseline measured invoice cost including retries, tools and review time valued at fixed wage. Until baseline is measured, keep UNRESOLVED rather than using token-price comparisons.",
      "adjudication": "Observe qualifying post-cutoff event by deadline for event questions; latest eligible reference period at deadline for states. Allow 90 days for scheduled statistical release, record period and vintage. No qualifying new release -> unavailable, not NO. Resolve events already confirmed YES without waiting. Two independent primary records for contested geopolitical claims; otherwise disputed/unresolved.",
      "rationale": "Constant-quality benchmark prices are falling rapidly; production retries and human review can offset token-price reductions.",
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      "publicExact": [
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    {
      "id": "F095",
      "mode": "E",
      "q": "Will ASML report at least EUR40 billion in trailing-four-quarter net sales?",
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      "resolver": "https://investor.asml.com/quarterly-results",
      "domain": "AI, science & hardware",
      "page": 31,
      "resolutionRule": "YES if an ASML quarterly or annual filing reports, or allows arithmetic reconstruction of, total net sales >=EUR40bn for four consecutive completed quarters ending by the resolution date. Guidance does not count.",
      "adjudication": "Observe qualifying post-cutoff event by deadline for event questions; latest eligible reference period at deadline for states. Allow 90 days for scheduled statistical release, record period and vintage. No qualifying new release -> unavailable, not NO. Resolve events already confirmed YES without waiting. Two independent primary records for contested geopolitical claims; otherwise disputed/unresolved.",
      "rationale": "AI hardware demand is strong, but bookings do not guarantee delivered systems or recognized revenue.",
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      "publicExact": [
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    {
      "id": "F096",
      "mode": "E",
      "q": "Will IEA project data-centre electricity demand of at least 1000 TWh in 2030?",
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      "agi": [
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      "resolver": "https://www.iea.org/topics/artificial-intelligence",
      "domain": "AI, science & hardware",
      "page": 32,
      "resolutionRule": "YES if a published IEA base-case global data-centre electricity projection for calendar 2030 is >=1000 TWh. Upside scenarios and non-IEA forecasts do not qualify.",
      "adjudication": "Observe qualifying post-cutoff event by deadline for event questions; latest eligible reference period at deadline for states. Allow 90 days for scheduled statistical release, record period and vintage. No qualifying new release -> unavailable, not NO. Resolve events already confirmed YES without waiting. Two independent primary records for contested geopolitical claims; otherwise disputed/unresolved.",
      "rationale": "The 2026 baseline is 950 TWh for 2030; hardware efficiency and construction delays can offset adoption growth.",
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      "publicExact": [
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    {
      "id": "F097",
      "mode": "E",
      "q": "Will a new frontier model be publicly held back for at least 30 days for safety reasons?",
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      "agi": [
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      "resolver": "https://www.anthropic.com/news",
      "domain": "AI, science & hardware",
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      "resolutionRule": "YES for a new event after 19 October 2026 in which its developer explicitly states that an externally planned general release is delayed >=30 calendar days due to safety/security testing. Routine unnamed training or access queues do not count.",
      "adjudication": "Observe qualifying post-cutoff event by deadline for event questions; latest eligible reference period at deadline for states. Allow 90 days for scheduled statistical release, record period and vintage. No qualifying new release -> unavailable, not NO. Resolve events already confirmed YES without waiting. Two independent primary records for contested geopolitical claims; otherwise disputed/unresolved.",
      "rationale": "Growing autonomy creates release and risk-management friction; this is not evidence of achieved AGI.",
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      "id": "F098",
      "mode": "E",
      "q": "Will a public independent evaluation find an AI agent autonomously exploiting and propagating across hardened sandbox hosts?",
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      "resolver": "https://metr.org/research/",
      "domain": "AI, science & hardware",
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      "resolutionRule": "YES for a new dated paper with >=5 sequential fresh-host compromises, no supplied valid credentials or intentionally unauthenticated service, exploit and payload stages completed by an agent in contained infrastructure, reproducible protocol and independent evaluator named. Real unauthorized attack is not required.",
      "adjudication": "Observe qualifying post-cutoff event by deadline for event questions; latest eligible reference period at deadline for states. Allow 90 days for scheduled statistical release, record period and vintage. No qualifying new release -> unavailable, not NO. Resolve events already confirmed YES without waiting. Two independent primary records for contested geopolitical claims; otherwise disputed/unresolved.",
      "rationale": "Current replication evidence simplifies the exploit step and therefore cannot establish this stronger milestone.",
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      "id": "F099",
      "mode": "E",
      "q": "Will an official investigation attribute a critical-health-service outage exceeding 24 hours to AI-assisted intrusion?",
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      "resolver": "https://www.ncsc.gov.uk/section/keep-up-to-date/threat-reports",
      "domain": "AI, science & hardware",
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      "resolutionRule": "YES for incident starting after baseline, with named national cyber authority or health regulator explicitly attributing material intrusion steps to AI tools and documenting >24h loss of critical clinical service at >=3 facilities. Vendor suspicion alone does not qualify.",
      "adjudication": "Observe qualifying post-cutoff event by deadline for event questions; latest eligible reference period at deadline for states. Allow 90 days for scheduled statistical release, record period and vintage. No qualifying new release -> unavailable, not NO. Resolve events already confirmed YES without waiting. Two independent primary records for contested geopolitical claims; otherwise disputed/unresolved.",
      "rationale": "Threat capability and attack surface are increasing, but causally attributing an outage to AI is difficult.",
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      "id": "F100",
      "mode": "E",
      "q": "Will a generally available model achieve at least 90% on the frozen OSWorld 2.0 task set?",
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      "resolver": "https://osworld-v2.xlang.ai/",
      "domain": "AI, science & hardware",
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      "resolutionRule": "YES for official benchmark-maintainer verified score >=90% on all 108 original tasks, fixed evaluation budget, no per-task human intervention, public agent report and safeguard policy. Results on OSWorld 2.1, subsets or modified tasks do not count.",
      "adjudication": "Observe qualifying post-cutoff event by deadline for event questions; latest eligible reference period at deadline for states. Allow 90 days for scheduled statistical release, record period and vintage. No qualifying new release -> unavailable, not NO. Resolve events already confirmed YES without waiting. Two independent primary records for contested geopolitical claims; otherwise disputed/unresolved.",
      "rationale": "Computer use improves quickly, but long workflows expose state, dynamic-interface and spatial failure modes.",
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    {
      "id": "F101",
      "mode": "E",
      "q": "Will a peer-reviewed real-work software RCT find at least 25% higher completed-task throughput using frontier agents?",
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      "resolver": "https://metr.org/research/",
      "domain": "AI, science & hardware",
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      "resolutionRule": "YES for >=100 professional developers over >=4 weeks on real production repositories, randomized agent access, throughput adjusted for task difficulty and externally assessed quality, >=25% uplift with P<.05. Self-reports and benchmark solves do not qualify.",
      "adjudication": "Observe qualifying post-cutoff event by deadline for event questions; latest eligible reference period at deadline for states. Allow 90 days for scheduled statistical release, record period and vintage. No qualifying new release -> unavailable, not NO. Resolve events already confirmed YES without waiting. Two independent primary records for contested geopolitical claims; otherwise disputed/unresolved.",
      "rationale": "Capability growth is strong but the early developer study illustrates that perceived gain can exceed measured gain.",
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      "id": "F102",
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      "q": "Will an AI-discovered de novo small-molecule drug receive FDA or EMA marketing authorization?",
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      "resolver": "https://www.fda.gov/drugs",
      "domain": "AI, science & hardware",
      "page": 32,
      "resolutionRule": "YES if FDA or EMA approves a previously unapproved small molecule and its trial/primary discovery publications document both AI target or hit selection and AI molecular-design contributions before candidate nomination. Repurposed approved drugs, purely retrospective AI attribution and trial authorizations do not qualify.",
      "adjudication": "Observe qualifying post-cutoff event by deadline for event questions; latest eligible reference period at deadline for states. Allow 90 days for scheduled statistical release, record period and vintage. No qualifying new release -> unavailable, not NO. Resolve events already confirmed YES without waiting. Two independent primary records for contested geopolitical claims; otherwise disputed/unresolved.",
      "rationale": "Rentosertib phase 2a demonstrates progression, while pivotal trials and regulatory review remain long physical bottlenecks.",
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      "id": "F103",
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      "q": "Will an African-source natural-product AI programme disclose a Phase I first participant dosed?",
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      "resolver": "https://clinicaltrials.gov/",
      "domain": "AI, science & hardware",
      "page": 33,
      "resolutionRule": "YES for a registered interventional Phase I drug trial first dosing after baseline, with compound provenance to a native African species and pre-candidate primary publication documenting substantive AI prioritization/design. Nutraceutical marketing and phase-II repurposing do not qualify.",
      "adjudication": "Observe qualifying post-cutoff event by deadline for event questions; latest eligible reference period at deadline for states. Allow 90 days for scheduled statistical release, record period and vintage. No qualifying new release -> unavailable, not NO. Resolve events already confirmed YES without waiting. Two independent primary records for contested geopolitical claims; otherwise disputed/unresolved.",
      "rationale": "Chemical diversity is attractive, but provenance, access, synthesis, toxicology and CMC precede human testing.",
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      "id": "F104",
      "mode": "E",
      "q": "Will a Kenyan institution publish a validated closed-loop robotic bioassay discovery study?",
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      "resolver": "https://pubmed.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/",
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      "resolutionRule": "YES for primary peer-reviewed study led by a Kenyan institution, >=3 model-propose/robot-experiment/update cycles, >=100 distinct test conditions, reported negative controls and independent manual replication of >=5 candidate results.",
      "adjudication": "Observe qualifying post-cutoff event by deadline for event questions; latest eligible reference period at deadline for states. Allow 90 days for scheduled statistical release, record period and vintage. No qualifying new release -> unavailable, not NO. Resolve events already confirmed YES without waiting. Two independent primary records for contested geopolitical claims; otherwise disputed/unresolved.",
      "rationale": "Accessible liquid handlers lower entry cost, but assay integrity, instrument integration and operating support govern success.",
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      "q": "Will an independent study demonstrate a robotic laboratory operating for 30 days with fewer than one human intervention per day?",
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      "resolver": "https://www.nature.com/",
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      "resolutionRule": "YES for peer-reviewed >=30 consecutive calendar-day operation in chemistry/biology, >=500 completed experiments, all human interventions logged, mean interventions <1/day, with safety stops included and documented assay QC.",
      "adjudication": "Observe qualifying post-cutoff event by deadline for event questions; latest eligible reference period at deadline for states. Allow 90 days for scheduled statistical release, record period and vintage. No qualifying new release -> unavailable, not NO. Resolve events already confirmed YES without waiting. Two independent primary records for contested geopolitical claims; otherwise disputed/unresolved.",
      "rationale": "Constrained self-driving systems already exist; scaling reliable operations remains distinct from scientific novelty.",
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      "id": "F106",
      "mode": "E",
      "q": "Will a blinded external replication validate at least 50% of AI-prioritized African natural-product hits?",
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      "resolver": "https://pubmed.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/",
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      "resolutionRule": "YES for a prospective peer-reviewed study with >=20 chemically characterized African-provenance natural compounds selected by AI, all sent blinded to independent lab, >=50% meeting preregistered potency and selectivity thresholds in orthogonal assays. Docking-only validation excluded.",
      "adjudication": "Observe qualifying post-cutoff event by deadline for event questions; latest eligible reference period at deadline for states. Allow 90 days for scheduled statistical release, record period and vintage. No qualifying new release -> unavailable, not NO. Resolve events already confirmed YES without waiting. Two independent primary records for contested geopolitical claims; otherwise disputed/unresolved.",
      "rationale": "Orthogonal assays, cytotoxicity and chemical identity are decisive filters against virtual-screening false positives.",
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    {
      "id": "F107",
      "mode": "E",
      "q": "Will a public drug-discovery dataset report machine-readable African genetic-resource benefit-sharing provenance?",
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      "resolver": "https://www.cbd.int/dsi-gr",
      "domain": "AI, science & hardware",
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      "resolutionRule": "YES for new primary dataset >=100 African-provenance compounds or sequence records, each with legal access/provenance identifier, originating country, permitted-use class and benefit-sharing reference or explicit documented non-applicability; data publicly inspectable.",
      "adjudication": "Observe qualifying post-cutoff event by deadline for event questions; latest eligible reference period at deadline for states. Allow 90 days for scheduled statistical release, record period and vintage. No qualifying new release -> unavailable, not NO. Resolve events already confirmed YES without waiting. Two independent primary records for contested geopolitical claims; otherwise disputed/unresolved.",
      "rationale": "ANPDB and DSI mechanisms create demand for traceable rights, but harmonized metadata remain challenging.",
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        "low": [
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    },
    {
      "id": "F108",
      "mode": "E",
      "q": "Will at least 100 participants be documented in a single implanted BCI clinical programme?",
      "public": [
        10,
        18,
        26,
        33,
        54,
        68
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      "agi": [
        11,
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      "resolver": "https://clinicaltrials.gov/",
      "domain": "AI, science & hardware",
      "page": 33,
      "resolutionRule": "YES if a registered implanted-BCI programme reports >=100 distinct humans implanted under prospective protocols, through regulator, registry results or peer-reviewed publication. Aggregate company waitlists and noninvasive EEG users excluded.",
      "adjudication": "Observe qualifying post-cutoff event by deadline for event questions; latest eligible reference period at deadline for states. Allow 90 days for scheduled statistical release, record period and vintage. No qualifying new release -> unavailable, not NO. Resolve events already confirmed YES without waiting. Two independent primary records for contested geopolitical claims; otherwise disputed/unresolved.",
      "rationale": "The 2024 review found only 67 participants across 21 groups; newer programmes may scale but surgical capacity remains limiting.",
      "contextSourceIds": [
        "S0535",
        "S0365"
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      "contextSignalIds": [
        "G01217",
        "G01218",
        "G00800",
        "G00801"
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        0.09628709438449054,
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          0.049487349252659595,
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    },
    {
      "id": "F109",
      "mode": "E",
      "q": "Will implanted speech BCI demonstrate six-month independent home use in at least ten participants?",
      "public": [
        7,
        13,
        19,
        24,
        42,
        56
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      "agi": [
        8,
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        22,
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      "resolver": "https://pubmed.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/",
      "domain": "AI, science & hardware",
      "page": 33,
      "resolutionRule": "YES for prospective peer-reviewed study >=10 participants, >=6 months median follow-up, independent speech communication outside lab documented >=4 days/week, with intelligibility/word-error and adverse-event reporting. Single-participant feasibility excluded.",
      "adjudication": "Observe qualifying post-cutoff event by deadline for event questions; latest eligible reference period at deadline for states. Allow 90 days for scheduled statistical release, record period and vintage. No qualifying new release -> unavailable, not NO. Resolve events already confirmed YES without waiting. Two independent primary records for contested geopolitical claims; otherwise disputed/unresolved.",
      "rationale": "Long-term independent single-person demonstrations are promising but do not establish population reliability.",
      "contextSourceIds": [
        "S0512",
        "S0542"
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      "contextSignalIds": [
        "G01165",
        "G01166",
        "G01231",
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          0.03488046303183999,
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    },
    {
      "id": "F110",
      "mode": "E",
      "q": "Will a noninvasive BCI achieve practical open-vocabulary communication under preregistered independent testing?",
      "public": [
        4,
        7,
        11,
        14,
        26,
        36
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      "agi": [
        4,
        8,
        12,
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        29,
        40
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      "resolver": "https://pubmed.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/",
      "domain": "AI, science & hardware",
      "page": 34,
      "resolutionRule": "YES for >=20 previously unseen users, noninvasive sensors only, unrestricted held-out sentence communication >=15 correct words/min at <=20% word error, with no overt speech or movement signal substitution and independent evaluator. Constrained symbol selection excluded.",
      "adjudication": "Observe qualifying post-cutoff event by deadline for event questions; latest eligible reference period at deadline for states. Allow 90 days for scheduled statistical release, record period and vintage. No qualifying new release -> unavailable, not NO. Resolve events already confirmed YES without waiting. Two independent primary records for contested geopolitical claims; otherwise disputed/unresolved.",
      "rationale": "Noninvasive signals differ substantially from cortical implants; extrapolation from invasive speech records is unsound.",
      "contextSourceIds": [
        "S0512",
        "S0542"
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      "contextSignalIds": [
        "G01165",
        "G01166",
        "G01231",
        "G01232"
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      "publicExact": [
        0.0375947688490405,
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        0.043036095199234424,
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    },
    {
      "id": "F111",
      "mode": "E",
      "q": "Will a robot foundation model reach at least 80% cross-embodiment held-out task success?",
      "public": [
        10,
        18,
        26,
        33,
        54,
        68
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      "agi": [
        11,
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      "resolver": "https://arxiv.org/",
      "domain": "AI, science & hardware",
      "page": 34,
      "resolutionRule": "YES for independent peer-reviewed evaluation >=3 robot embodiments, >=100 held-out manipulation tasks total, >=80% mean success, with no task-specific fine-tuning and physical outcomes scored. Simulation-only, training-task or vendor-only tests excluded.",
      "adjudication": "Observe qualifying post-cutoff event by deadline for event questions; latest eligible reference period at deadline for states. Allow 90 days for scheduled statistical release, record period and vintage. No qualifying new release -> unavailable, not NO. Resolve events already confirmed YES without waiting. Two independent primary records for contested geopolitical claims; otherwise disputed/unresolved.",
      "rationale": "Motion transfer is progressing, but action generalization trails in-distribution results.",
      "contextSourceIds": [
        "S0544",
        "S0494"
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      "contextSignalIds": [
        "G01235",
        "G01126",
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      "publicExact": [
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      "sensitivity": {
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        "high": [
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    },
    {
      "id": "F112",
      "mode": "E",
      "q": "Will a foundation model trained substantially on African clinical data pass prospective multisite external validation?",
      "public": [
        7,
        13,
        18,
        24,
        41,
        54
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      "agi": [
        7,
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      "resolver": "https://pubmed.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/",
      "domain": "AI, science & hardware",
      "page": 34,
      "resolutionRule": "YES for published model with explicit training-data consent/provenance, >=100000 deidentified African clinical encounters from >=3 countries, followed by preregistered prospective independent validation in >=2 unseen African countries against prespecified safety and utility endpoints. Model marketing claims excluded.",
      "adjudication": "Observe qualifying post-cutoff event by deadline for event questions; latest eligible reference period at deadline for states. Allow 90 days for scheduled statistical release, record period and vintage. No qualifying new release -> unavailable, not NO. Resolve events already confirmed YES without waiting. Two independent primary records for contested geopolitical claims; otherwise disputed/unresolved.",
      "rationale": "Local data can add value but aggregation, rights, leakage control and validation require institutions and time.",
      "contextSourceIds": [
        "S0512",
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      "contextSignalIds": [
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      "publicExact": [
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        "high": [
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    },
    {
      "id": "F113",
      "mode": "E",
      "q": "Will an AI developer publish a fully end-to-end autonomous successor-model improvement experiment?",
      "public": [
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        33,
        44,
        53,
        75,
        86
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      "agi": [
        25,
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        55,
        65,
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      "resolver": "https://www.anthropic.com/research",
      "domain": "AI, science & hardware",
      "page": 34,
      "resolutionRule": "YES for primary technical report where system selects research direction, changes training code/data, runs training, and achieves independently held-out improvement across >=3 distinct benchmark families at fixed measured compute, repeated for >=3 successive model generations with no human design choice between generations. Isolated kernel gains and agent-authored code shares excluded.",
      "adjudication": "Observe qualifying post-cutoff event by deadline for event questions; latest eligible reference period at deadline for states. Allow 90 days for scheduled statistical release, record period and vintage. No qualifying new release -> unavailable, not NO. Resolve events already confirmed YES without waiting. Two independent primary records for contested geopolitical claims; otherwise disputed/unresolved.",
      "rationale": "Public evidence supports AI-assisted R&D and local optimization, while fully recursive successor development remains a stronger unproven claim.",
      "contextSourceIds": [
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      "contextSignalIds": [
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      "publicExact": [
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    },
    {
      "id": "F114",
      "mode": "S",
      "q": "Kenya headline CPI inflation is at least 8.0% year-on-year in the latest monthly KNBS release available at the horizon.",
      "public": [
        36,
        36,
        37,
        38,
        38,
        38
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      "agi": [
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      ],
      "resolver": "https://www.knbs.or.ke/consumer-price-indices/",
      "domain": "Kenya & capital",
      "page": 35,
      "resolutionRule": "Use latest KNBS national CPI annual percentage rate whose reference month ends on or before horizon; resolve true iff rate >=8.0. Later revisions ignored after 60-day resolution window.",
      "adjudication": "Observe qualifying post-cutoff event by deadline for event questions; latest eligible reference period at deadline for states. Allow 90 days for scheduled statistical release, record period and vintage. No qualifying new release -> unavailable, not NO. Resolve events already confirmed YES without waiting. Two independent primary records for contested geopolitical claims; otherwise disputed/unresolved.",
      "rationale": "Food and transport pressures can transmit to household affordability; 6.8% Sep2026 baseline. Analyst prior.",
      "contextSourceIds": [
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      "publicExact": [
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    },
    {
      "id": "F115",
      "mode": "S",
      "q": "Kenya food and non-alcoholic beverages CPI inflation is at least 12.0% year-on-year at the horizon.",
      "public": [
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        44,
        45,
        45,
        45
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      "agi": [
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      "resolver": "https://www.knbs.or.ke/consumer-price-indices/",
      "domain": "Kenya & capital",
      "page": 35,
      "resolutionRule": "Latest monthly KNBS food/non-alcoholic beverages annual rate reference month on or before horizon; true >=12.0%.",
      "adjudication": "Observe qualifying post-cutoff event by deadline for event questions; latest eligible reference period at deadline for states. Allow 90 days for scheduled statistical release, record period and vintage. No qualifying new release -> unavailable, not NO. Resolve events already confirmed YES without waiting. Two independent primary records for contested geopolitical claims; otherwise disputed/unresolved.",
      "rationale": "Higher food share reduces discretionary health contributions and repayment capacity.",
      "contextSourceIds": [
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      "contextSignalIds": [
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      "publicExact": [
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      "sensitivity": {
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    },
    {
      "id": "F116",
      "mode": "S",
      "q": "KES/USD official daily indicative exchange rate is at least 145.00 at the horizon.",
      "public": [
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        35,
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      "agi": [
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      "resolver": "https://www.centralbank.go.ke/rates/forex-exchange-rates/",
      "domain": "Kenya & capital",
      "page": 35,
      "resolutionRule": "CBK indicative mean KES per USD rate on horizon or last preceding business day; true >=145.00. Avoid reciprocal conversion.",
      "adjudication": "Observe qualifying post-cutoff event by deadline for event questions; latest eligible reference period at deadline for states. Allow 90 days for scheduled statistical release, record period and vintage. No qualifying new release -> unavailable, not NO. Resolve events already confirmed YES without waiting. Two independent primary records for contested geopolitical claims; otherwise disputed/unresolved.",
      "rationale": "Imported equipment, cloud and USD debt increase FX mismatch. Analyst prior.",
      "contextSourceIds": [
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        "S0262"
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      "contextSignalIds": [
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      "publicExact": [
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    },
    {
      "id": "F117",
      "mode": "S",
      "q": "KES/USD official daily indicative exchange rate is at least 160.00 at the horizon.",
      "public": [
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      "agi": [
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      "resolver": "https://www.centralbank.go.ke/rates/forex-exchange-rates/",
      "domain": "Kenya & capital",
      "page": 35,
      "resolutionRule": "CBK indicative mean KES per USD on horizon or preceding business day; true >=160.00.",
      "adjudication": "Observe qualifying post-cutoff event by deadline for event questions; latest eligible reference period at deadline for states. Allow 90 days for scheduled statistical release, record period and vintage. No qualifying new release -> unavailable, not NO. Resolve events already confirmed YES without waiting. Two independent primary records for contested geopolitical claims; otherwise disputed/unresolved.",
      "rationale": "Tail FX stress; reserves provide a buffer but import and financing shocks can overwhelm it.",
      "contextSourceIds": [
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        "S0262"
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      "contextSignalIds": [
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      "publicExact": [
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      "sensitivity": {
        "low": [
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        "high": [
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      }
    },
    {
      "id": "F118",
      "mode": "S",
      "q": "CBK gross usable foreign exchange reserves cover less than 4.0 months of imports at the horizon.",
      "public": [
        15,
        16,
        17,
        17,
        17,
        17
      ],
      "agi": [
        16,
        16,
        17,
        18,
        18,
        18
      ],
      "resolver": "https://www.centralbank.go.ke/weekly-bulletin/",
      "domain": "Kenya & capital",
      "page": 35,
      "resolutionRule": "Latest CBK weekly bulletin published by horizon: stated usable reserves import-cover months <4.0; use the official definition in that bulletin.",
      "adjudication": "Observe qualifying post-cutoff event by deadline for event questions; latest eligible reference period at deadline for states. Allow 90 days for scheduled statistical release, record period and vintage. No qualifying new release -> unavailable, not NO. Resolve events already confirmed YES without waiting. Two independent primary records for contested geopolitical claims; otherwise disputed/unresolved.",
      "rationale": "Reserve drawdown warning affects warehouse currency costs and imported devices.",
      "contextSourceIds": [
        "S0490",
        "S0263"
      ],
      "contextSignalIds": [
        "G01115",
        "G01116",
        "G00593",
        "G00594"
      ],
      "publicExact": [
        0.1542170899553173,
        0.15975153505036915,
        0.16660804376361132,
        0.17475024189622734,
        0.17475024189622734,
        0.17475024189622734
      ],
      "agiExact": [
        0.15523980096045256,
        0.16198744587089772,
        0.17024702856298013,
        0.17997901688726686,
        0.17997901688726686,
        0.17997901688726686
      ],
      "sensitivity": {
        "low": [
          0.08362632995510658,
          0.08713688848665177,
          0.09167782215818288,
          0.09730403189936113,
          0.09730403189936111,
          0.09730403189936111
        ],
        "high": [
          0.21462415314790473,
          0.22130464832747582,
          0.2292736758924232,
          0.23840964546976226,
          0.23840964546976226,
          0.23840964546976226
        ]
      }
    },
    {
      "id": "F119",
      "mode": "S",
      "q": "CBK Central Bank Rate is at least 11.0% at the horizon.",
      "public": [
        26,
        26,
        27,
        28,
        28,
        28
      ],
      "agi": [
        26,
        27,
        28,
        29,
        29,
        29
      ],
      "resolver": "https://www.centralbank.go.ke/monetary-policy/",
      "domain": "Kenya & capital",
      "page": 35,
      "resolutionRule": "Most recent announced effective CBR on or before horizon >=11.0%.",
      "adjudication": "Observe qualifying post-cutoff event by deadline for event questions; latest eligible reference period at deadline for states. Allow 90 days for scheduled statistical release, record period and vintage. No qualifying new release -> unavailable, not NO. Resolve events already confirmed YES without waiting. Two independent primary records for contested geopolitical claims; otherwise disputed/unresolved.",
      "rationale": "Inflation or FX stress could reverse easing and raise credit funding cost.",
      "contextSourceIds": [
        "S0263",
        "S0264"
      ],
      "contextSignalIds": [
        "G00593",
        "G00594",
        "G00595",
        "G00596"
      ],
      "publicExact": [
        0.2559128662401799,
        0.26310410310277327,
        0.2714552182986479,
        0.2807992081997474,
        0.2807992081997474,
        0.2807992081997474
      ],
      "agiExact": [
        0.25737603861637565,
        0.2662238861067936,
        0.276415313909564,
        0.2877686291654522,
        0.28776862916545226,
        0.28776862916545226
      ],
      "sensitivity": {
        "low": [
          0.1469208335495154,
          0.1522819866201082,
          0.15895371778688555,
          0.16691051638420057,
          0.16691051638420057,
          0.16691051638420057
        ],
        "high": [
          0.3400627319002922,
          0.3477065566941973,
          0.35607652903756154,
          0.36495986152391313,
          0.36495986152391313,
          0.36495986152391313
        ]
      }
    },
    {
      "id": "F120",
      "mode": "S",
      "q": "Kenya trailing 12-month formal remittance inflows are below their preceding 12-month total.",
      "public": [
        31,
        31,
        32,
        33,
        33,
        33
      ],
      "agi": [
        31,
        32,
        33,
        34,
        34,
        34
      ],
      "resolver": "https://www.centralbank.go.ke/diaspora-remittances/",
      "domain": "Kenya & capital",
      "page": 35,
      "resolutionRule": "Sum CBK monthly USD formal remittance inflows for last12 complete reported months with reference months on/before horizon and preceding12; true if recent < preceding. Max90-day publication lag.",
      "adjudication": "Observe qualifying post-cutoff event by deadline for event questions; latest eligible reference period at deadline for states. Allow 90 days for scheduled statistical release, record period and vintage. No qualifying new release -> unavailable, not NO. Resolve events already confirmed YES without waiting. Two independent primary records for contested geopolitical claims; otherwise disputed/unresolved.",
      "rationale": "Diaspora employment/policy shocks matter to health contributions; no guaranteed national pool capture.",
      "contextSourceIds": [
        "S0262",
        "S0307"
      ],
      "contextSignalIds": [
        "G00591",
        "G00592",
        "G00682",
        "G00683"
      ],
      "publicExact": [
        0.3064638671958695,
        0.3140142333246384,
        0.32248501515805583,
        0.33167390992190243,
        0.33167390992190243,
        0.33167390992190243
      ],
      "agiExact": [
        0.3080799622434469,
        0.3174161559677391,
        0.3278294911464247,
        0.33909971784922505,
        0.33909971784922505,
        0.33909971784922505
      ],
      "sensitivity": {
        "low": [
          0.1812175419893483,
          0.187326267868628,
          0.19476852641641051,
          0.20346811049543778,
          0.20346811049543778,
          0.20346811049543778
        ],
        "high": [
          0.3983131526904131,
          0.4058789222013057,
          0.41379480839690924,
          0.42185262444831584,
          0.42185262444831584,
          0.42185262444831584
        ]
      }
    },
    {
      "id": "F121",
      "mode": "S",
      "q": "The US share of Kenya formal remittances is below 50% over the latest complete reported quarter.",
      "public": [
        18,
        19,
        20,
        21,
        21,
        21
      ],
      "agi": [
        19,
        19,
        20,
        21,
        21,
        21
      ],
      "resolver": "https://www.centralbank.go.ke/diaspora-remittances/",
      "domain": "Kenya & capital",
      "page": 36,
      "resolutionRule": "Use CBK monthly US-origin inflows / total all-origin inflows summed over last3 complete reported months on/before horizon; true <0.50. If monthly origin data unavailable resolve unavailable, not substitute survey share.",
      "adjudication": "Observe qualifying post-cutoff event by deadline for event questions; latest eligible reference period at deadline for states. Allow 90 days for scheduled statistical release, record period and vintage. No qualifying new release -> unavailable, not NO. Resolve events already confirmed YES without waiting. Two independent primary records for contested geopolitical claims; otherwise disputed/unresolved.",
      "rationale": "Origin concentration determines correlated contribution risk.",
      "contextSourceIds": [
        "S0262",
        "S0308"
      ],
      "contextSignalIds": [
        "G00591",
        "G00592",
        "G00684",
        "G00685"
      ],
      "publicExact": [
        0.1848130734695722,
        0.19099053707388833,
        0.1984996389597445,
        0.2072590158753689,
        0.2072590158753689,
        0.2072590158753689
      ],
      "agiExact": [
        0.1859873324655716,
        0.19353875447969066,
        0.20261808154942718,
        0.2131369599204233,
        0.2131369599204233,
        0.2131369599204233
      ],
      "sensitivity": {
        "low": [
          0.10192033185303527,
          0.10603218670621732,
          0.11129197943996696,
          0.11773588840225814,
          0.11773588840225814,
          0.11773588840225814
        ],
        "high": [
          0.25358945506907926,
          0.26075737452013437,
          0.2690942252421127,
          0.2784351837600206,
          0.2784351837600206,
          0.2784351837600206
        ]
      }
    },
    {
      "id": "F122",
      "mode": "S",
      "q": "Kenya quarterly real GDP growth is below 3.0% year-on-year in the latest KNBS quarter at the horizon.",
      "public": [
        25,
        25,
        26,
        27,
        27,
        27
      ],
      "agi": [
        25,
        26,
        27,
        28,
        28,
        28
      ],
      "resolver": "https://www.knbs.or.ke/quarterly-gross-domestic-product/",
      "domain": "Kenya & capital",
      "page": 36,
      "resolutionRule": "Latest published KNBS quarterly real GDP y/y growth for quarter ending on/before horizon <3.0%; allow90 days to report.",
      "adjudication": "Observe qualifying post-cutoff event by deadline for event questions; latest eligible reference period at deadline for states. Allow 90 days for scheduled statistical release, record period and vintage. No qualifying new release -> unavailable, not NO. Resolve events already confirmed YES without waiting. Two independent primary records for contested geopolitical claims; otherwise disputed/unresolved.",
      "rationale": "Weak activity pressures clinic purchasing budgets and credit.",
      "contextSourceIds": [
        "S0491"
      ],
      "contextSignalIds": [
        "G01119",
        "G01120"
      ],
      "publicExact": [
        0.2457797909708478,
        0.25286471479842304,
        0.2611475314761394,
        0.2704710896908652,
        0.2704710896908652,
        0.2704710896908652
      ],
      "agiExact": [
        0.24720711439544962,
        0.2559157953069946,
        0.2660098745700958,
        0.27731842006546936,
        0.2773184200654694,
        0.2773184200654694
      ],
      "sensitivity": {
        "low": [
          0.14028396978222898,
          0.1454805961896582,
          0.1519740022782689,
          0.15974848532136446,
          0.15974848532136446,
          0.15974848532136446
        ],
        "high": [
          0.3280722015044574,
          0.3356951169199653,
          0.3441160202844232,
          0.3531246981100377,
          0.3531246981100377,
          0.3531246981100377
        ]
      }
    },
    {
      "id": "F123",
      "mode": "S",
      "q": "Kenya commercial-bank gross NPL ratio is at least 20.0% at the horizon.",
      "public": [
        39,
        39,
        40,
        41,
        41,
        41
      ],
      "agi": [
        39,
        40,
        41,
        42,
        42,
        42
      ],
      "resolver": "https://www.centralbank.go.ke/bank-supervision/",
      "domain": "Kenya & capital",
      "page": 36,
      "resolutionRule": "Latest CBK reported system gross NPL/gross loans percentage for reference month on/before horizon >=20.0%; allow90-day lag.",
      "adjudication": "Observe qualifying post-cutoff event by deadline for event questions; latest eligible reference period at deadline for states. Allow 90 days for scheduled statistical release, record period and vintage. No qualifying new release -> unavailable, not NO. Resolve events already confirmed YES without waiting. Two independent primary records for contested geopolitical claims; otherwise disputed/unresolved.",
      "rationale": "Credit conditions proxy; does not equal device portfolio default probability.",
      "contextSourceIds": [
        "S0263",
        "S0267"
      ],
      "contextSignalIds": [
        "G00593",
        "G00594",
        "G00601",
        "G00602"
      ],
      "publicExact": [
        0.386971855199231,
        0.3945747959745238,
        0.4026035920261325,
        0.41084707928829206,
        0.41084707928829206,
        0.41084707928829206
      ],
      "agiExact": [
        0.38874457056781275,
        0.3982285917478953,
        0.4082318346909535,
        0.4185247768391248,
        0.4185247768391248,
        0.4185247768391248
      ],
      "sensitivity": {
        "low": [
          0.24027212050448538,
          0.24729417537095263,
          0.25553313411263606,
          0.2648375687708594,
          0.2648375687708594,
          0.2648375687708594
        ],
        "high": [
          0.4860173481061698,
          0.49299112610671403,
          0.4997237661382042,
          0.5060567460691411,
          0.5060567460691411,
          0.5060567460691411
        ]
      }
    },
    {
      "id": "F124",
      "mode": "S",
      "q": "Kenya weighted average commercial-bank lending rate is at least 16.0% at the horizon.",
      "public": [
        31,
        31,
        32,
        33,
        33,
        33
      ],
      "agi": [
        31,
        32,
        33,
        34,
        34,
        34
      ],
      "resolver": "https://www.centralbank.go.ke/commercial-banks-weighted-average/",
      "domain": "Kenya & capital",
      "page": 36,
      "resolutionRule": "Latest CBK monthly weighted average commercial-bank lending rate for month on/before horizon >=16.0%.",
      "adjudication": "Observe qualifying post-cutoff event by deadline for event questions; latest eligible reference period at deadline for states. Allow 90 days for scheduled statistical release, record period and vintage. No qualifying new release -> unavailable, not NO. Resolve events already confirmed YES without waiting. Two independent primary records for contested geopolitical claims; otherwise disputed/unresolved.",
      "rationale": "Tests cost-of-credit pressure beyond CBR alone.",
      "contextSourceIds": [
        "S0263",
        "S0264"
      ],
      "contextSignalIds": [
        "G00593",
        "G00594",
        "G00595",
        "G00596"
      ],
      "publicExact": [
        0.3064638671958695,
        0.3140142333246384,
        0.32248501515805583,
        0.33167390992190243,
        0.33167390992190243,
        0.33167390992190243
      ],
      "agiExact": [
        0.3080799622434469,
        0.3174161559677391,
        0.3278294911464247,
        0.33909971784922505,
        0.33909971784922505,
        0.33909971784922505
      ],
      "sensitivity": {
        "low": [
          0.1812175419893483,
          0.187326267868628,
          0.19476852641641051,
          0.20346811049543778,
          0.20346811049543778,
          0.20346811049543778
        ],
        "high": [
          0.3983131526904131,
          0.4058789222013057,
          0.41379480839690924,
          0.42185262444831584,
          0.42185262444831584,
          0.42185262444831584
        ]
      }
    },
    {
      "id": "F125",
      "mode": "S",
      "q": "Kenya 91-day Treasury-bill weighted average accepted interest rate is at least 11.0% at the horizon.",
      "public": [
        33,
        33,
        34,
        35,
        35,
        35
      ],
      "agi": [
        33,
        34,
        35,
        36,
        36,
        36
      ],
      "resolver": "https://www.centralbank.go.ke/bills-bonds/treasury-bills/",
      "domain": "Kenya & capital",
      "page": 36,
      "resolutionRule": "Last successful CBK 91-day T-bill auction before/on horizon; reported weighted average accepted interest rate >=11.0%. Failed auction: use preceding successful auction.",
      "adjudication": "Observe qualifying post-cutoff event by deadline for event questions; latest eligible reference period at deadline for states. Allow 90 days for scheduled statistical release, record period and vintage. No qualifying new release -> unavailable, not NO. Resolve events already confirmed YES without waiting. Two independent primary records for contested geopolitical claims; otherwise disputed/unresolved.",
      "rationale": "Local safe-rate benchmark affects warehouse pricing and fund opportunity cost.",
      "contextSourceIds": [
        "S0267",
        "S0262"
      ],
      "contextSignalIds": [
        "G00601",
        "G00602",
        "G00591",
        "G00592"
      ],
      "publicExact": [
        0.3266326669728025,
        0.33425216136431735,
        0.342678095047517,
        0.351700649695446,
        0.35170064969544607,
        0.35170064969544607
      ],
      "agiExact": [
        0.32829789404041554,
        0.33773932478945345,
        0.348130006048035,
        0.3592415140254317,
        0.3592415140254317,
        0.3592415140254317
      ],
      "sensitivity": {
        "low": [
          0.1954793480394597,
          0.2018503572752017,
          0.20954303368177682,
          0.21846105514454783,
          0.21846105514454786,
          0.21846105514454786
        ],
        "high": [
          0.42085107435381264,
          0.42831410972872164,
          0.4359749407098948,
          0.4436339508964226,
          0.4436339508964226,
          0.4436339508964226
        ]
      }
    },
    {
      "id": "F126",
      "mode": "E",
      "q": "At least one Kenya-licensed stablecoin-issuer VASP appears in an official CBK licensing notice or register by the horizon.",
      "public": [
        18,
        32,
        43,
        53,
        76,
        87
      ],
      "agi": [
        21,
        37,
        49,
        58,
        81,
        90
      ],
      "resolver": "https://www.centralbank.go.ke/virtual-asset-service-providers/",
      "domain": "Kenya & capital",
      "page": 36,
      "resolutionRule": "True only if dated CBK official register/notice explicitly licenses a named entity for stablecoin issuance under VASP Act2025. Sandbox, application and general PSP status insufficient.",
      "adjudication": "Observe qualifying post-cutoff event by deadline for event questions; latest eligible reference period at deadline for states. Allow 90 days for scheduled statistical release, record period and vintage. No qualifying new release -> unavailable, not NO. Resolve events already confirmed YES without waiting. Two independent primary records for contested geopolitical claims; otherwise disputed/unresolved.",
      "rationale": "July2026 final rules enable formal licensing; actual named authorization remains separate from law.",
      "contextSourceIds": [
        "S0263",
        "S0266"
      ],
      "contextSignalIds": [
        "G00593",
        "G00594",
        "G00599",
        "G00600"
      ],
      "publicExact": [
        0.17735010493113124,
        0.31950359893708585,
        0.4342182423917575,
        0.5273777558433208,
        0.7603712991627293,
        0.8718687590921369
      ],
      "agiExact": [
        0.20630376078582435,
        0.36507045259582105,
        0.4881980912836139,
        0.5844210402441766,
        0.8069279286103826,
        0.9017837664296249
      ],
      "sensitivity": {
        "low": [
          0.09364954344339074,
          0.17735010493113124,
          0.2522908193086238,
          0.31950359893708585,
          0.5273777558433208,
          0.6659840730143534
        ],
        "high": [
          0.2522908193086238,
          0.4342182423917575,
          0.5673233084754267,
          0.6659840730143533,
          0.8718687590921369,
          0.9457093185234837
        ]
      }
    },
    {
      "id": "F127",
      "mode": "E",
      "q": "At least one Kenya-licensed virtual-asset wallet provider appears in an official CBK or CMA register by the horizon.",
      "public": [
        23,
        39,
        52,
        62,
        84,
        93
      ],
      "agi": [
        26,
        45,
        58,
        68,
        88,
        94
      ],
      "resolver": "https://www.cma.or.ke/licensees-market-players/",
      "domain": "Kenya & capital",
      "page": 36,
      "resolutionRule": "Official CBK/CMA dated licensing register/notice explicitly names licensed wallet activity under VASP framework. Registration elsewhere, approval in principle and application not sufficient.",
      "adjudication": "Observe qualifying post-cutoff event by deadline for event questions; latest eligible reference period at deadline for states. Allow 90 days for scheduled statistical release, record period and vintage. No qualifying new release -> unavailable, not NO. Resolve events already confirmed YES without waiting. Two independent primary records for contested geopolitical claims; otherwise disputed/unresolved.",
      "rationale": "Partner availability for compliant custody is a practical delivery gate.",
      "contextSourceIds": [
        "S0268"
      ],
      "contextSignalIds": [
        "G00603",
        "G00604"
      ],
      "publicExact": [
        0.2254753761119685,
        0.39450472053728725,
        0.5226644891663236,
        0.6208469228032092,
        0.8392971723841347,
        0.9261397375949983
      ],
      "agiExact": [
        0.2607619782594103,
        0.4461200563194953,
        0.5796411833599311,
        0.6770898323650412,
        0.8750089677004532,
        0.9444825446262176
      ],
      "sensitivity": {
        "low": [
          0.12100591259854421,
          0.2254753761119685,
          0.3159402180387636,
          0.39450472053728725,
          0.6208469228032093,
          0.7559768140319915
        ],
        "high": [
          0.3159402180387636,
          0.5226644891663236,
          0.6612027312307673,
          0.7559768140319915,
          0.9261397375949983,
          0.9739197602185359
        ]
      }
    },
    {
      "id": "F128",
      "mode": "E",
      "q": "A Kenya public enforcement order restricts an unauthorised stablecoin or crypto remittance provider by the horizon.",
      "public": [
        15,
        26,
        36,
        45,
        67,
        80
      ],
      "agi": [
        15,
        27,
        37,
        46,
        68,
        80
      ],
      "resolver": "https://www.cma.or.ke/enforcement-actions/",
      "domain": "Kenya & capital",
      "page": 37,
      "resolutionRule": "At least one published dated CBK/CMA/FRC enforcement notice, direction or court order specifically bars, suspends or fines a named provider for unlicensed virtual-asset/remittance activity in Kenya; investigation alone insufficient.",
      "adjudication": "Observe qualifying post-cutoff event by deadline for event questions; latest eligible reference period at deadline for states. Allow 90 days for scheduled statistical release, record period and vintage. No qualifying new release -> unavailable, not NO. Resolve events already confirmed YES without waiting. Two independent primary records for contested geopolitical claims; otherwise disputed/unresolved.",
      "rationale": "Formalisation raises compliance costs and partner selection risks.",
      "contextSourceIds": [
        "S0268"
      ],
      "contextSignalIds": [
        "G00603",
        "G00604"
      ],
      "publicExact": [
        0.1450152747803875,
        0.2648814938433468,
        0.3646550900744292,
        0.4482525052449824,
        0.6731340699525342,
        0.7962303276381689
      ],
      "agiExact": [
        0.15002575530897447,
        0.27315011742365713,
        0.3748765165238885,
        0.4594674871767176,
        0.6832058166530005,
        0.8026321088185817
      ],
      "sensitivity": {
        "low": [
          0.07602149327769486,
          0.1450152747803875,
          0.20774534869203903,
          0.2648814938433468,
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        "high": [
          0.20774534869203906,
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    },
    {
      "id": "F129",
      "mode": "E",
      "q": "Kenya gazettes a binding national AI-specific Act by the horizon.",
      "public": [
        7,
        13,
        18,
        24,
        41,
        53
      ],
      "agi": [
        7,
        13,
        19,
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      "resolver": "https://new.kenyalaw.org/legislation/",
      "domain": "Kenya & capital",
      "page": 37,
      "resolutionRule": "Kenya Law or Kenya Gazette publishes assent and commencement of national Act primarily governing AI. Bills, policies, guidance and sector regulations excluded.",
      "adjudication": "Observe qualifying post-cutoff event by deadline for event questions; latest eligible reference period at deadline for states. Allow 90 days for scheduled statistical release, record period and vintage. No qualifying new release -> unavailable, not NO. Resolve events already confirmed YES without waiting. Two independent primary records for contested geopolitical claims; otherwise disputed/unresolved.",
      "rationale": "Policy-to-law conversion uncertain; ODPC law already applies.",
      "contextSourceIds": [
        "S0299",
        "S0273"
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      "contextSignalIds": [
        "G00666",
        "G00667",
        "G00613",
        "G00614"
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      "publicExact": [
        0.06682164143586186,
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      "sensitivity": {
        "low": [
          0.03412611060800553,
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    },
    {
      "id": "F130",
      "mode": "S",
      "q": "Kenya Digital Health Agency has at least 25 named certified digital-health systems in its public official register by the horizon.",
      "public": [
        66,
        66,
        66,
        67,
        67,
        67
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      "agi": [
        66,
        66,
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      "resolver": "https://certification.dha.go.ke/",
      "domain": "Kenya & capital",
      "page": 37,
      "resolutionRule": "Count distinct currently certified systems named in DHA public register at horizon, exclude applications, facilities and expired entries; >=25.",
      "adjudication": "Observe qualifying post-cutoff event by deadline for event questions; latest eligible reference period at deadline for states. Allow 90 days for scheduled statistical release, record period and vintage. No qualifying new release -> unavailable, not NO. Resolve events already confirmed YES without waiting. Two independent primary records for contested geopolitical claims; otherwise disputed/unresolved.",
      "rationale": "Certification can become a procurement barrier and trust differentiator.",
      "contextSourceIds": [
        "S0302"
      ],
      "contextSignalIds": [
        "G00672",
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      "publicExact": [
        0.6558560459560031,
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      "sensitivity": {
        "low": [
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        "high": [
          0.7406233788823045,
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    },
    {
      "id": "F131",
      "mode": "E",
      "q": "IRA publishes at least one enforcement action specifically involving use of AI in insurance claims or underwriting by the horizon.",
      "public": [
        9,
        16,
        23,
        29,
        49,
        62
      ],
      "agi": [
        9,
        17,
        24,
        30,
        50,
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      ],
      "resolver": "https://www.ira.go.ke/",
      "domain": "Kenya & capital",
      "page": 37,
      "resolutionRule": "Dated IRA public notice/order explicitly identifies AI or automated decision-making in insurance as material conduct requiring remedial/enforcement action. General data breaches excluded.",
      "adjudication": "Observe qualifying post-cutoff event by deadline for event questions; latest eligible reference period at deadline for states. Allow 90 days for scheduled statistical release, record period and vintage. No qualifying new release -> unavailable, not NO. Resolve events already confirmed YES without waiting. Two independent primary records for contested geopolitical claims; otherwise disputed/unresolved.",
      "rationale": "Human-review obligations and immature automated claims create conduct risk.",
      "contextSourceIds": [
        "S0271"
      ],
      "contextSignalIds": [
        "G00609",
        "G00610"
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      "publicExact": [
        0.08510931000288803,
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      "sensitivity": {
        "low": [
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        "high": [
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      }
    },
    {
      "id": "F132",
      "mode": "S",
      "q": "Kenya's registered private insurers' aggregate claims incurred ratio exceeds 75% for the latest reported quarter at the horizon.",
      "public": [
        41,
        41,
        42,
        43,
        43,
        43
      ],
      "agi": [
        41,
        42,
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      ],
      "resolver": "https://www.ira.go.ke/industry-statistics/",
      "domain": "Kenya & capital",
      "page": 37,
      "resolutionRule": "Use IRA sector quarterly report aggregate general-business claims-incurred/net-earned-premium ratio; true >75%; if only gross ratio reported do not mix definitions, mark unavailable.",
      "adjudication": "Observe qualifying post-cutoff event by deadline for event questions; latest eligible reference period at deadline for states. Allow 90 days for scheduled statistical release, record period and vintage. No qualifying new release -> unavailable, not NO. Resolve events already confirmed YES without waiting. Two independent primary records for contested geopolitical claims; otherwise disputed/unresolved.",
      "rationale": "Sector pressure could increase premiums and partner terms; healthcare-specific loss ratios preferred if available.",
      "contextSourceIds": [
        "S0271"
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      "contextSignalIds": [
        "G00609",
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      "publicExact": [
        0.4070316215934179,
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      "sensitivity": {
        "low": [
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        "high": [
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    },
    {
      "id": "F133",
      "mode": "E",
      "q": "A Kenya or EAC company announces a new primary healthtech equity financing round of at least US$20m by the horizon.",
      "public": [
        10,
        19,
        27,
        34,
        55,
        69
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      "agi": [
        12,
        22,
        31,
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      "resolver": "https://www.africavca.org/",
      "domain": "Kenya & capital",
      "page": 37,
      "resolutionRule": "Company or named investor announcement of newly closed equity round, primary proceeds >=USD20m equivalent at announcement FX; headquartered Kenya/Uganda/Tanzania/Rwanda/Burundi/SouthSudan/DRC/Somalia and healthtech main activity. Exclude debt, acquisitions, target fundraises.",
      "adjudication": "Observe qualifying post-cutoff event by deadline for event questions; latest eligible reference period at deadline for states. Allow 90 days for scheduled statistical release, record period and vintage. No qualifying new release -> unavailable, not NO. Resolve events already confirmed YES without waiting. Two independent primary records for contested geopolitical claims; otherwise disputed/unresolved.",
      "rationale": "Capital-market capacity indicator for $24m equity ambition. Company/investor announcement is final resolver.",
      "contextSourceIds": [
        "S0165",
        "S0344"
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      "contextSignalIds": [
        "G00381",
        "G00382",
        "G00758",
        "G00759"
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      "publicExact": [
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      "sensitivity": {
        "low": [
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      }
    },
    {
      "id": "F134",
      "mode": "E",
      "q": "At least one African healthtech company announces a new closed receivables or equipment debt facility of at least US$25m by the horizon.",
      "public": [
        12,
        22,
        31,
        39,
        61,
        75
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      "agi": [
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      "resolver": "https://www.ifc.org/en/pressroom",
      "domain": "Kenya & capital",
      "page": 37,
      "resolutionRule": "Company/lender primary announcement of binding closed facility >=USD25m, health financing/equipment/receivables purpose; exclude fundraising targets and equity. Africa operating company qualifies.",
      "adjudication": "Observe qualifying post-cutoff event by deadline for event questions; latest eligible reference period at deadline for states. Allow 90 days for scheduled statistical release, record period and vintage. No qualifying new release -> unavailable, not NO. Resolve events already confirmed YES without waiting. Two independent primary records for contested geopolitical claims; otherwise disputed/unresolved.",
      "rationale": "Asset-backed capital available at scale after proven receivables rather than speculative tech.",
      "contextSourceIds": [
        "S0343",
        "S0340"
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      "contextSignalIds": [
        "G00756",
        "G00757",
        "G00750",
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      "publicExact": [
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      "agiExact": [
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      "sensitivity": {
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        "high": [
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    },
    {
      "id": "F135",
      "mode": "E",
      "q": "An official African sovereign dollar-bond restructuring occurs by the horizon.",
      "public": [
        22,
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        50,
        59,
        81,
        90
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      "agi": [
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      "resolver": "https://www.imf.org/en/Countries",
      "domain": "Kenya & capital",
      "page": 38,
      "resolutionRule": "A sovereign with substantial territory in Africa formally exchanges or court-ratifies restructuring of external marketable USD sovereign bonds by horizon. Routine liability management without distressed terms excluded; sovereign treasury/IMF primary confirmation.",
      "adjudication": "Observe qualifying post-cutoff event by deadline for event questions; latest eligible reference period at deadline for states. Allow 90 days for scheduled statistical release, record period and vintage. No qualifying new release -> unavailable, not NO. Resolve events already confirmed YES without waiting. Two independent primary records for contested geopolitical claims; otherwise disputed/unresolved.",
      "rationale": "Regional risk repricing can affect fundraising and FX costs even without Kenya default.",
      "contextSourceIds": [
        "S0246",
        "S0248"
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      "contextSignalIds": [
        "G00559",
        "G00560",
        "G00563",
        "G00564"
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      "publicExact": [
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        0.49809676675956316,
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      "agiExact": [
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      "sensitivity": {
        "low": [
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    },
    {
      "id": "F136",
      "mode": "S",
      "q": "Kenya public debt interest payments exceed 35% of ordinary revenue over the latest complete rolling 12 reported months.",
      "public": [
        51,
        51,
        52,
        53,
        53,
        53
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      "agi": [
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      "resolver": "https://www.treasury.go.ke/quarterly-economic-budgetary-review",
      "domain": "Kenya & capital",
      "page": 38,
      "resolutionRule": "Use National Treasury actual monthly/quarterly outturn interest payments / ordinary revenue sum last12months ending on/before horizon; >35%, same fiscal definitions, max90-day reporting lag.",
      "adjudication": "Observe qualifying post-cutoff event by deadline for event questions; latest eligible reference period at deadline for states. Allow 90 days for scheduled statistical release, record period and vintage. No qualifying new release -> unavailable, not NO. Resolve events already confirmed YES without waiting. Two independent primary records for contested geopolitical claims; otherwise disputed/unresolved.",
      "rationale": "Fiscal crowding-out affects health purchasing and investor sovereign-risk premiums.",
      "contextSourceIds": [
        "S0177",
        "S0132"
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      "contextSignalIds": [
        "G00418",
        "G00419",
        "G00289",
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      "publicExact": [
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      "agiExact": [
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      "sensitivity": {
        "low": [
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        "high": [
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    },
    {
      "id": "F137",
      "mode": "S",
      "q": "Kenya annual real GDP growth for the latest completed calendar year is below 4.0%.",
      "public": [
        29,
        29,
        30,
        31,
        31,
        31
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      "agi": [
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      "resolver": "https://www.knbs.or.ke/economic-survey/",
      "domain": "Kenya & capital",
      "page": 38,
      "resolutionRule": "KNBS first annual national accounts estimate for most recent full calendar year ending on/before horizon; real GDP annual growth <4.0%; allow120 days; use first release.",
      "adjudication": "Observe qualifying post-cutoff event by deadline for event questions; latest eligible reference period at deadline for states. Allow 90 days for scheduled statistical release, record period and vintage. No qualifying new release -> unavailable, not NO. Resolve events already confirmed YES without waiting. Two independent primary records for contested geopolitical claims; otherwise disputed/unresolved.",
      "rationale": "Annual demand and affordability stress distinct from quarter indicator.",
      "contextSourceIds": [
        "S0491"
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      "contextSignalIds": [
        "G01119",
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      "publicExact": [
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      "agiExact": [
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      "sensitivity": {
        "low": [
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    },
    {
      "id": "F138",
      "mode": "E",
      "q": "A new public primary-data study in Kenya reports a statistically significant reduction in catastrophic health expenditure from a remittance-linked health financing intervention by the horizon.",
      "public": [
        4,
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        11,
        15,
        27,
        37
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      "resolver": "https://pubmed.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/",
      "domain": "Kenya & capital",
      "page": 38,
      "resolutionRule": "Peer-reviewed paper or pre-registered study report with Kenya sample, randomized or credible quasi-experimental comparator, predefined catastrophic-expenditure threshold and95%CI excluding zero for reduction; protocol/marketing surveys excluded.",
      "adjudication": "Observe qualifying post-cutoff event by deadline for event questions; latest eligible reference period at deadline for states. Allow 90 days for scheduled statistical release, record period and vintage. No qualifying new release -> unavailable, not NO. Resolve events already confirmed YES without waiting. Two independent primary records for contested geopolitical claims; otherwise disputed/unresolved.",
      "rationale": "Tests evidence scarcity rather than assumes remittance-linked cover already validated.",
      "contextSourceIds": [
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      "contextSignalIds": [
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      "publicExact": [
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  "companionSource": "/investors/data-room?document=research-model-package"
}