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  "limitations": [
    "All financing uncommitted; programme size is not valuation.",
    "All budgets, prices, management targets and probabilities are planning assumptions.",
    "Device debt is conditional capacity, not parent cash. Health assets and research grants are restricted.",
    "Matawis is a distinct partner; no second company valuation bundled into equity.",
    "Supplied forecast and finance models reproduced locally; reproducibility does not establish calibration, clinical efficacy, legal clearance or actuarial sufficiency."
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        "id": "F2",
        "q": "Brent settles above $120 on any day before 15 Jan 2027",
        "p": 0.25,
        "resolves": "2027-01-15"
      },
      {
        "id": "F3",
        "q": "Fed raises rates again by its January 2027 meeting",
        "p": 0.4,
        "resolves": "2027-01-31"
      },
      {
        "id": "F4",
        "q": "Central Bank of Kenya raises the CBR before 28 Feb 2027",
        "p": 0.3,
        "resolves": "2027-02-28"
      },
      {
        "id": "F5",
        "q": "Kenya December 2026 CPI ≥ 7.0%",
        "p": 0.55,
        "resolves": "2027-01-05"
      },
      {
        "id": "F6",
        "q": "WHO Bundibugyo Ebola PHEIC still in force on 31 Jan 2027",
        "p": 0.8,
        "resolves": "2027-01-31"
      },
      {
        "id": "F7",
        "q": "Kenya confirms a locally acquired Bundibugyo case by 31 Jan 2027",
        "p": 0.2,
        "resolves": "2027-01-31"
      },
      {
        "id": "F8",
        "q": "FAO Food Price Index for December 2026 above 136.0",
        "p": 0.6,
        "resolves": "2027-01-08"
      },
      {
        "id": "F9",
        "q": "US 10-year Treasury closes above 5.50% before 31 Jan 2027",
        "p": 0.3,
        "resolves": "2027-01-31"
      },
      {
        "id": "F10",
        "q": "Nasdaq closes ≥ 15% below its 2026 high before 16 Apr 2027",
        "p": 0.35,
        "resolves": "2027-04-16"
      },
      {
        "id": "F11",
        "q": "Two of OpenAI, Anthropic, Google ship a new flagship generation before 31 Jan 2027",
        "p": 0.85,
        "resolves": "2027-01-31"
      },
      {
        "id": "F12",
        "q": "Kenya reports ≥ 50 flood deaths in the Oct–Dec 2026 short rains",
        "p": 0.45,
        "resolves": "2027-01-15"
      }
    ]
  }
}