The Artery War
The Artery War
Derrick Macharia · Matawis AI
Published 2026-10-23 · Version 3
DOI 10.5281/zenodo.24088019 · Archived on Zenodo · CC BY 4.0
Abstract
The war people fear is already being fought, on the world’s arteries rather than its borders. Black Sea grain ships, the Hormuz blockade and Chinese coast-guard inspections near Taiwan are the same move: squeeze civilian trade without declaring war. Gulf crude is back above 75% of pre-war levels, but refined fuels are only at about 40%, and Kenya buys refined fuel. Headline numbers: New great-power war: 7.9% chance of a new sustained great-power war in at least one region within a year, and 22% within three years. World War 3: 1.1% within one year and 3.9% within three, using a stand-in definition: linked wars across several regions. The red-team chapter makes the strongest case that this is too low, and lists the events that would make me raise it sharply. Black Sea: eight ships were struck in October, about ten times the August–September rate. I put 83% on another strike within 30 days. Kenya fuel: I expect the Nairobi petrol cap around KES 220 in April 2027 (226.96 today). Every +$10 a barrel adds about KES 8.8 per litre. If fuel VAT goes back from 8% to 16% when the current relief runs out in January, that adds about KES 16.8 per litre.
- #WorldWar3
How to cite
Derrick Macharia (2026). The Artery War (Version 3). Matawis AI. https://doi.org/10.5281/zenodo.24088019
@techreport{macharia2026mr,
author = {Derrick Macharia},
title = {{The Artery War}},
institution = {Matawis AI},
year = {2026},
note = {Version 3},
doi = {10.5281/zenodo.24088019},
url = {https://pawanalife.com/research/mr}
}